Category Asian Space Race: Rhetoric or Reality?

The twenty-first century is witnessing rapid development in various parts of Southeast Asia. However, few states within the region are also struggling to maintain balance between their social obligations and economic reforms. It is their belief that technology could act as a catalyst for successful implementation of their development strategies. During the last few years, Vietnamese government has invested significant resources in the development of its science and technology base keeping in mind the long-term interests of the state. Space technology is one such area identified by the Vietnamese government.

It would of interest to note that issues of space technology had been making inroads in Vietnam’s strategic thinking since 1980.[155] The beginning was made by the UNDP’s projects to promote utilisation of satellite data for survey purposes

and particularly under the joint Soviet Union-Vietnam space flight cooperation. Interestingly, the first Asian in the space was a Vietnamese cosmonaut Pham Tuan (now retired lieutenant general) who flew in July 1980 under the Soviet Interkosmos space exploration programme. Vietnam, a state marred by war for decades in yesteryears, is fully aware that they are a part of a region which is extremely prone for various natural disasters too. Hence, international cooperation in space science and technology is very important for Vietnam to address the challenges raised by global warming and climate change.22 The state understands that the real challenge for them is to attain a sustainable development while facing various natural and manmade difficulties. This makes them to depend more on technologies to find both short term and long-term solutions.

In 2006, the Vietnamese government announced the ‘Strategy for space tech­nology research and applications until 2020’ that lays down plans to develop communication and Earth observation satellites. In Apr 2008, a 2.6-ton medium­sized satellite Vinasat-1 was put into geostationary orbit using rocket Ariane-5 launcher from French Guiana. It took nearly 13 years for the completion of this project which was approved by the government in 1995 with the focus on providing low-cost communication services. The first satellite has a life span of 15-20 years, and the contractor of the project is the US aerospace giant Lockheed Martin.

Vietnam also faced difficulties in obtaining the geostationary orbit position because of the concerns of Japan. The Vietnamese satellite is located at longitude 132° east which is also been used by Japan. They had to undergo intense negations since allowing the usage of slot at global level is governed by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU).

Vinasat-1 is a commercial communication satellite; however, the capability of this satellite is not been utilised fully due to the lack of clientele. In 2009, only 30% of its capability was used, but slowly the situation is changing. The initial absence of customers could be mainly attributed to the overall economic slowdown of the global market then. From Vietnam’s point of view, the availability of such satellite is a boon because it would have to otherwise spend ‘almost 15 million US dollars annually to rent satellites of foreign countries as Russia, Australia and Thailand’ [5].

Vietnam has formulated a Vietnam Natural resources environment and disaster monitoring small satellite programme (VNREDSat) under which it is planning to launch two micro-satellites in coming few years. Work is in progress to put first satellite in orbit under this plan (overall second satellite for the state). France is expected to provide the technology and official development assistance (ODA) for this project. This small satellite would cater for natural resources development, envi­ronment study and disaster monitoring. This multispectral VNREDSat-1, using the French Myriade bus, is in construction at EADS Astrium, Toulouse, for a planned launch in 2013-2014. This satellite is expected to serve 90% of domestic customers

needs and 10% of the foreign customers needs (Thailand, Laos, Singapore and Indonesia).[156] The second micro-satellite for Earth observations VNREDSat-1B would be send by taking help from Belgium. Spacebel leading a Belgian consortium of industries specialised in space systems (QinetiQ Space, AMOS, CSL) is doing a feasibility study for the final design of the optical payload—for high-resolution and multispectral or hyperspectral images. The contract is expected to be signed in Ho Chi Minh ville by 2012. VNREDSat-1B, planned for launch in 2016, will be combined with VNREDSat-1A, to provide Vietnam with a regular and quick monitoring of the environment in Southeast Asia.[157]

The lack of rocket science base in Vietnam demands that it looks for partners. Japan is emerging as a major partner in the space arena for them. An ‘in principle agreement’ has been reached between the two countries whereby Japan would provide development assistance to launch satellites. Japan has offer 7 billion yen (90.3 million U. S. dollars) to develop and manufacture two Earth observation satellites for monitoring natural disasters. Japan has signed an agreement with Vietnam offering grants of US$1.2 billion of ODA on Nov 2, 2011.[158] This includes promoting policy actions and improving technology to respond to natural disaster and climate change: support programme to respond to climate change; project for disaster and climate change countermeasures using Earth observation satellite. Naturally, the orders for satellite manufacture can be expected to be given to Japanese companies, and Japan is even proposing to launch one satellite. This is one of the biggest ODA plan for Japan and is expected to boost their space industry. The Vietnamese government has assigned the Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology to build a national space centre at a cost of about US$600 million with support from Japanese designers and technicians. The centre is expected to be completed by 2018 and will cover an area of 9 ha of Hoa Lac High-tech Park in Hanoi. It will form a hub for research and installation of small satellites to meet demands for weather forecasting, research and disaster management. Once the centre has been built, Vietnam will have the most modern space science facility in Southeast Asia.[159]

Vietnam is the member of the Asia-Pacific Regional Space Agency Forum (APRSAF).[160] It is mainly involved in the SAFE (Space Applications For Environ­ment) programme of this forum which deals with the cooperation and management of environmental issues like use of satellite data and RS and GIS for disaster management. Vietnam’s increasing interests in the satellite field are presently tapped by states like Japan and France. Vietnam’s space development policy clearly suggests that there are opportunities for other actors too.

Within 12 years after the launch of the first satellite Sputnik, in 1969, the Americans succeeded in putting human on the Moon’s surface. The famous quote of the first visitor to the Moon Neil Armstrong was ‘one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind’. However, the American Apollo programme was the outcome of the ‘Sputnik shock’. This shock was traumatic to the Americans who believed that if the Soviets could put a satellite into orbit, then they could do same with nuclear weapons. They wanted to disprove the perception that the Americans were techni­cally inferior and hence potentially weaker than the Soviets. Apollo demonstrated the technological supremacy of the Americans to the world. Interestingly, further to initial few flights of Apollo, nothing much happened, and in fact last three Apollo flights were cancelled. This mainly happened because there was no clarity of agenda. The financial costs involved were sky-scraping. ‘The lesson of Apollo is simple: without a strategic purpose, manned space flight is not deemed sufficiently important to warrant the kind of government resource investment necessary for success’ [1].

Apollo programme carried Americans to the Moon in 1969-1972. Also, few unmanned probes visited the Moon during the same time period. All these manned and unmanned visits collected significant scientific data but not sufficient enough to answer many questions starting from the evolution of the Moon, the possibility of availability of the water over the Moon and about the nature and quantum of mineral deposits over the Moon. The challenge of reaching the Moon (either manned visit or otherwise) was itself so immense that studying the Moon became part II of the story.

Now, in the twenty-flrst century, Moon has regained the attention of space scientists, rocket engineers and policymakers. Mankind has realised that the natural resources on the surface of the Earth are finite in nature and hence has started tapping at other planets for the same. Naturally, Moon becomes the best option being the closest satellite of the Earth, and it has been visited by humans in the past. However, the knowledge, expertise and capabilities in regard to basic space technologies to send a satellite into the space is available with very few states, and to reach the Moon requires much better understanding of rocket science and resources. Hence, only the big three from Asia are actually found attempting to conquer the Moon, while few others have expressed ambitions to do so.

Modern-day space exploration could be broadly divided into two major seg­ments: one, putting the satellites either in low, medium or geostationary (36,000 km above Earth’s surface) orbits and two, reaching to the planets, what is commonly known as the ‘deep space missions’. Moon the nearest satellite to the Earth is 387 400 km away from the Earth. Amongst the space players, there is a sharp contrast in terms of capabilities. The Iranians can reach the low Earth orbit now, while the Americans had reached the Moon four decades back. In deep space arena, Japan, China and India are relatively late bloomers, but during last few years, they have shown remarkable growth.

The most fascinating aspect of space rendezvous is the human space flight. More glamour gets added in such missions is when the astronauts undertake a spacewalk. Undertaking such extravehicular activity (EVA—commonly known as spacewalk) is an extremely challenging task. Till date many astronauts particularly from the states like the USA and Russia have undertaken spacewalks. For developed spacefaring states after mastering the technology of human space flights and EVAs, the next logical step is to bring more purpose to such visits beyond technology demonstration. With a view to undertake experiments in space and create an

A. Lele, Asian Space Race: Rhetoric or Reality?, DOI 10.1007/978-81-322-0733-7_14, 205

© Springer India 2013

arrangement for longer duration and for more comfortable stay for the astronauts, few states have developed space stations and established space laboratories. Such arrangements allow them to undertake various scientific experimentations under microgravity conductions. Mankind has ambitions to establish human settlements in the space. Various concepts from low-Earth-orbit hotels to the settlements on the Moon and Mars are being discussed and debated for last couple of years. In this context development of space shuttles, undertaking human space visits, carrying out space walks and establishing space laboratories and space stations are imperative. For the fulfilment of the long-term ambition like colonising the Moon, the developments of space stations are going to be the first baby steps. Realising the long-term importance of such activities, the major spacefaring Asian states have started making investments in such activities. These states also factor in scientific, social and foreign policy relevance of human missions in their thinking.

It is a common knowledge that the USA and the erstwhile USSR (Russia) are the pioneers in undertaking human space visits and spacewalks. However, Asian states do also have certain linkages to the initial human space flights. The first manned mission to orbit the Moon, Apollo 8, included American William Anders who incidentally was born in Hong Kong, so he is referred as the first Asian-born astronaut in 1968. Similarly, in April 1985, Taylor Wand visited space as crew of STS-51B Challenger (April 29-May 6, 1985). He becomes the first ethnic Chinese person in space.1 Sultan bin Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud from Saudi Arabia was the first Arab and Muslim to visit the space. In 1985, he flew as a payload specialist on STS-51G Discovery (June 17-24,1985).[287] [288] A Japanese television journalist named Toyohiro Akiyama was the first Japanese to visit space on Soyuz craft to the Mir space station.[289] Incidentally, this 1990 visit is also known as the first space visit undertaken as a part of a commercial agreement. Six years before this, an Indian Air Force Officer Rakesh Sharma had visited space as a part of a joint Indo-Soviet space mission. In an unfortunate incidence on Feb 1, 2003, Kalpana Chawla, the US astronaut of Indian origin (born and studied in India—the first Indian woman in space) died in Space Shuttle Columbia disaster. This ill-fated shuttle also had Ilan Ramon, the first Israeli astronaut on board.

The first Chinese in space onboard the Chinese craft was Yang Liwei (October 2003/Shenzhou 5). Malaysia’s first astronaut, Sheikh Muszaphar Shukor, was part of the Russian Soyuz rocket mission during Oct 2007. The first South Korean in space was a woman named Yi So-yeon on the Soyuz TMA-12 spacecraft during April 2008 mission.[290] South Korea was the sixth Asian country to put an astronaut in space. However, only China has succeeded so far in sending humans to space with the help of their own spacecraft. Rest all Asians to visit space were either a part of a bilateral agreement or space travel undertaken as a part of commercial agreement.

The accomplishment of the human visits to the space needs to be judged at two different levels. As per the universally accepted norm, an individual qualifies to become an astronaut when he/she travels to a minimum distance of 90 km above the Earth’s surface out into the space. So far multiple such visits have taken place. The ISS is approximately located at a height of 400 km above the earth’s surface. Many human visits to the ISS have taken place till date. Humans have stayed there for a longer duration and have successfully undertaken EVAs. All this indicates that few states have succeeded in visiting the space, however; their visits have remained restricted to the LEO only. The next step in the human dream of space exploration includes human travel to the deep space region and development of human colonies on Moon and Mars. The USA is the only country which has till date been successful with human visits to the deep space region too. In this context, Asia has much to achieve. Only one Asian state so far has succeeded with human visits to the LEO, and the Moon visit is still a distant dream.

Planning of any human visits to space involves a process of an orderly development, testing and maturating of various technologies. The first step in that direction involves sending satellites/capsules to the space and receiving them back to the Earth. This essentially means mastering the re-entry technology. The second stage could involve undertaking developments of space shuttle and first testing technologies with the robotic missions. It is also important to develop technologies in regard to the substance of the human beings in the inhospitable atmosphere out in the space. Also, various challenges are involved in developing the technologies for the purpose of EVAs and building space stations. Varying degrees of investments are being found made by few Asian states in this regard. Following paragraphs analyses such investments.

Design and development of space vehicles is a costly, time-consuming and technologically challenging task. The greatest challenge is to develop a system which can withstand extreme environmental conductions including intense heat which it would have to survive while entering the Earth’s atmosphere on an inbound journey from space to Earth. The task becomes more critical for designing a space shuttle with human passengers onboard.

Asian spacefaring nations always had a dream of indigenous space shuttle to carry humans to space. Some of them have made a modest beginning to fulfil this aspiration but are still much away from achieving the final aim. China is the only Asian state to launch the first human space flight. Other states like India and Japan have interest in this area too but still have much to achieve.

The commercial space market is in existence since 1970. At present, the world mar­ket for satellite-based services—including telecommunications, television, global positioning systems and Earth observation (weather, environmental, search and rescue)—is valued at nearly US$90 billion. The problem with the commercial space market is that it has not been large enough to attract private investment in the technologies needed to lower the cost of access to space. Space tourism holds great promise as an economic ‘driver’, leading to market competition to lower launch costs and space travel and stay costs which could in turn attract other customers to the space market.[337]

All these years, sending a human to the space has remained a costly affair, and it costs around US$ 25-30 million per trip. Countries in the region have depended on the USA and Russia to send their astronauts to the space. In the recent past,

Malaysia and South Korea had sent their astronauts via this mechanism. India also has inked deal with Russia in this regard, and as a commercial activity, two Indian space travellers would be flying the non-reusable ‘Soyuz TMA’ ship to be piloted by a Russian cosmonaut.[338] However, all these efforts should be viewed form a point of view of using space travel as a tool to enhance country’s international image, popularise space science and generate feeling of nationalism amongst its population. Couple of years ago, China succeeded in sending men to the space using its own spacecraft.

However, coming years may witness a significant change in attitude towards space travel in form of a shift from state sponsored to private activity. Burt Rutan’s SpaceShipOne, the winner of the Ansari X-Prize, is helping open a new frontier of economic development. In cooperation with Richard Branson and other entrepreneurs, a new space market is likely to emerge. Few Japanese companies and individuals are keen to invest in this industry and have already made business plans to that effect.[339] Various new ideas are being discussed, and even businessmen from states like Singapore are working towards possessing next-generation space vehicles which could offer a 5-min trip to fly 100 km above Earth surface. Space Tourism Society in Malaysia feels that building space tourism vehicle would be more expensive, and Third World countries should enter this business as administrative supporters in the space tourism activities and organisations. They may also invest in programmes like training astronauts and so on [15]. Abu Dhabi is also likely to emerge as a major commercial centre and could materialise as a hub for commercial space activities.

Asia may not take a lead in space tourism in the next couple of decades, but a few private entities from Asia may join the global bandwagon. The major uncertainty in this field could be the approach of governments. Different governments would try to regulate the industry based on their perceptions about passenger safety standards offered by private companies and the overall impact of having private spacecrafts on national security.

In the post-Cold War world, Asia is rediscovering itself both economically and strategically. A new sense of identity is getting revealed by this multicultural, multilinguistic and multireligious community. The geopolitical scenario in this region is assuming greater importance for major powers in the world. The superior position of the Europeans and that of the United States (US) in the global affairs since the nineteenth century is been challenged by few Asian powers. This is mainly happening because these states have succeeded in rapidly increasing their economic and strategic might. It is also important to note that in Asia along with various ‘islands’ of prosperity and peace also a vast ‘landmass’ of poverty and conflict exists.

This overall transformation of Asia is being viewed as a ‘Rise of Asia’. It is argued that the overall growth of economies in Asia is shifting the balance of world economic power away from the Europe and the USA. An optimistic view is that this ‘civilisation in making’ may take the entire world under its sphere of influence in coming years [3]. It is expected that the economic growth of the region may ultimately get translated into power. However, for this to happen, it is essential that the sustained economic development of the region takes place. Any assessment about the future of Asia needs to factor various facets augmenting and limiting the rise of Asia.

The likely rise of Asia is expected to bring in a significant global transformation. The process of the modernisation of Asia (substantial parts of Asia) is almost getting completed by the beginning of twenty-first century. Half a century ago, there appeared to be mainly two modern societies in Asia, namely, Japan and Israel. However, the states within the region particularly the states geographically and culturally close to Japan were quick to learn from the Japanese success. South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore started emulating Japan [4]. On the other

hand, China also understood the advantages of modernising. The growth of China since 1980s has been unique, and by beginning of twenty-first, it became the fastest growing economy of the world. By 2011, China overtook Japan and became the second largest economy in the world. With this, the second and the third (Japan) largest economies in the world are now residing in Asia. Along with the rising China, another country to witness the exponential growth in the region is India (fourth position in terms of purchasing power parity in 2010 estimate).

The stride of Asia towards prosperity and development has become possible be­cause of the opening of their economies, creation of global market for their projects, engaging Western states in economic activities and creating Asian dependence, developing a science and technology base, making trained employable manpower available catering of both regional and global needs. The biggest advantage the Asian region has is the availability of English speaking people[1] which is helping in enhancing their overall global footprint. In strategic realm, Asia is the most ‘happening’ continent in the world. The most significant military conflicts of the twenty-first century like Iraq and Afghanistan are being fought in the Asian theatre. Also, political conflicts like Iran and North Korea are being fought from the Asian soil. Like the rest of the world, Asian region is also marred from threats of terrorism, climate change, natural disasters, piracy and drug trafficking. But, in spite of such limitations, the Asia as a whole is found rising.

The future of Asia will depend on Asians and their efforts to assert themselves. A significant number of Asian Diaspora staying outside Asia is also contributing towards brightening this future. Asian inventiveness, Asian industries, Asian man­agement skills and Asian governance needs to make their presence felt at global level and should be in a position to provide the ‘Asian models for prosperity’ to the rest of the world. Asia has potential to contribute towards to the growth and development of continents like Africa and Latin America.[2] Post-1990s, it has been observed that few Asian states have made significant inroads into various areas of technologies like electronics, nuclear technology, information technology and biotechnology, etc. In few spheres of technology like electronics and information technology, the domination of Asia is global. Space technology is another area where some Asian states have developed themselves into a major spacefaring nation (nations with capability to launch their own satellites to orbit) and have also established various bilateral and multilateral initiatives with developed spacefaring nations. Few of the Asian states are also engaging the African and Latin American states and are helping them for the developments of their space programme. Asian

states have commercial interests attached to their space journey. The present level of achievements by few Asia states in space arena and their roadmaps for the future indicates that the prospects of growth in Asian space industry are very encouraging. Also, once the ‘space tourism’ becomes a reality, Asian states are expected to develop in this sector too.

Asia’s response to space epoch needs to be understood at the backdrop of the appreciation of the overall growth of technology and the political/governmental support received by the scientific community in this quest for technology.

In 1963, India’s entry into the space field made a nascent beginning from a small church in Thumba village in the southern parts of India. It started with launching of sounding rockets in 1963. At that time, the purpose behind investing in space technologies was for scientific investigations of the upper atmospheric and ionospheric phenomenon above the geomagnetic equator. In India, the geomagnetic equator passes through Thumba village (Kerala state in India). During 1960s, the only suitable building to start this job was a church in this village [1]. From this village, India launched its first sounding rocket on November 21, 1963.1 Over last four to five decades, India’s space programme has made significant progress and is today globally reorganised as one of the most successful programmes in recent times. India’s initial progress in the space arena was slow in comparison with the progress made by in the later days. Limited technological expertise and being an underdeveloped economy lack of financial resources were probably the key reasons for this slow growth.

Initial journey of India in this field was founded restricted to sounding rocket experimentation. Such experiments continued almost for a decade. Subsequently, India placed its first satellite in orbit with the help of the erstwhile USSR on Apr 19, 1975. Aryabhatta was India’s first satellite, named after an ancient Indian mathematician of the fifth century AD. It was launched[72] [73] from Kapustin Yar, a rocket launch and development site close to Volgograd in the then USSR. Further, India became a spacefaring nation on July 18, 1980, when it demonstrated that it could send a satellite to orbit by using its own rocket launching system. This was the launch of satellite Rohini 1 with the help of Satellite Launch Vehicle (SLV) rocket from its own launch site located at Sriharikota in South India.

Initially, India’s space programme started under the aegis of Department of Atomic Energy[74] in 1962 with creation of Indian National Committee for Space Research (INCOSPAR). The mandate to the committee was to oversee all aspects of space research in the country. Work began on the establishment of the Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station (TERLS) in 1962.[75] The first sounding rocket was launched with the help form National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) which provided Nike-Apache rocket along with other hardware and training aids.

India’s former Prime Minister Ms. Indira Gandhi dedicated TERLS to the United Nations on Feb 2, 1968. On that occasion, INCOSPAR Chairman Dr. Vikram Sarabhai articulated India’s aspirations in space programme. He stated that India’s programme is civilian in nature, with focus on the application of space technology as a tool for socioeconomic development of the country. The basic aim of India’s space programme was described as a programme capable of using space technologies in the vital areas of development such as communications, meteorology and natural resource management [2]. It is important to make a mention over here that Dr. Vikram Sarabhai gave the initial vision to the Indian space programme, and it was Prof Satish Dhawan (1972-1984) who made this dream a reality.

Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) was formed under the Department of Atomic Energy in 1969 and was subsequently brought under the Department of Space in 1972. A Space Commission was also setup in the same year which reports directly to the prime minister. The Department of Space along with ISRO operates four independent projects: the Indian National Satellite Space Segment Project, the National Natural Resource Management System (NNRMS), the National Remote Sensing Agency (NRSA) and the Physical Research Laboratory (PRL). The depart­ment also sponsors research in various academic and research institutions.5

Presently, the ISRO has various operating divisions all over the country. These divisions deal with space systems, propulsion, communications, telemetry and tracking, research, launches and other facets of the space programme. The major achievements of the space programme have been in the area of the domestic design, production and launching of remote sensing and communications satellites. Over the years, ISRO has established a strong infrastructure for remote sensing and communications satellite systems with launcher autonomy. In 1992, the ISRO established its commercial outlet called the Antrix Corporation (this word is from

ancient Indian language ‘Sanskrit’—meaning space). This organisation markets space and telecommunications products of ISRO.[76]

Initially, the Indian Space Programme had focused on mainly experimental, low-capability projects that allowed Indian scientists to gain experience in the construction and operation of satellites and launch vehicles. ISRO built (with some foreign assistance) the Bhaskara Earth observation satellites, a communication satellite (the APPLE satellite), and conducted four flight tests on its SLV-3 satellite launch vehicle between 1979 and 1983 [3].

Subsequently, from mid-1980s, India focused on more capable, mission-specific systems. During this period, ISRO started designing and developing the PSLV (polar orbiting satellite launch vehicle) and its successor the geostationary satellite launch vehicle (GSLV). These vehicles were required to launch the indigenously developed Indian Remote Sensing (IRS) satellite and a meteorology and telecommunications ‘Indian National Satellite’ (INSAT). PSLV commenced its operational launches in 1997 and since then has gained an image of most dependable workhorse with ten consecutive flights till April 2007.[77] On September 2, 2007, India successfully launched its INSAT-4CR geostationary satellite with GSLV F04 vehicle. This launch proved India’s capabilities to put satellites weighing around 2,500 kg into the geostationary orbit. First two stages of these GSLV vehicles are derived from PSLV.

Further, ISRO has plans of designing and developing the Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle mark III (GSLV Mk-III) vehicle which is an entirely new launch vehicle and is not derived from PSLV or GSLV Mk-I/II. In April 2002, Indian government approved Rs. 2,498 crores (US$ 520M) for development of GSLV Mk-83 III, a rocket system capable of launching 4,400 kg satellite to GTO with a designed growth potential towards a 6,000 kg payload capability through minor improvements.[78] It may take another 2-3 years to make this vehicle operational.

India has one of the most robust remote sensing satellite programmes. In the area of satellite-based remote sensing, first-generation satellites called Indian Remote Sensing (IRS) satellites, respectively, named as IRS-1A and 1B were designed, developed and launched successfully during 1988 and 1991 with multispectral cameras which had spatial resolution of 72.5 and 36 m, respectively. Second – generation IRS-1C and 1D were launched during 1995-1997. These satellites had improved spatial resolutions of 70 m in multispectral and 5.8 m in panchromatic bands. These satellites have become main components of National Natural Resource Management System, and the data is being used for agriculture, forestry and water resources management.

Another type of remote sensing satellite called RESOURCESAT-1 was launched into polar orbit in 2003 with sensors useful for land use and resource studies. The system provides 5-m resolution of terrain features. India’s cartographic series of satellites, namely, CARTOSAT 1, 2, 2A and 2B, are satellites with one of the

finest resolution in the world. They offer stereoscopic imagery and make terrain mapping easier. CARTOSAT-1 was launched in May 2005 into polar orbit with two panchromatic imaging cameras, each with 2.5-m resolution. The stereoscopic imaging by the two cameras facilitates the construction of three-dimensional terrain maps. These systems are meeting the demands of terrain visualisation, updating of topographic maps, generation of national topographic database and other utility planning.[79] The resolution of recently launched satellites (2A and 2B launched during 2008 and 2010, respectively) matches the best in the world and offer sub­metric resolution (the American satellite QuickBird is the world’s highest-resolution commercial satellite and offers a resolution of 60 cm).[80] [81] Such satellites have significant defence utilities too.

Satellite communication is one arena where India has made significant invest­ments since the beginning of its space programme. It is difficult to delineate the exact investments made by India in the satellite communication sector since inception of its space programme because India started with the doctrine of developing multipurpose satellites. While most satellites fulfil a single, well – defined mission, INSAT series satellites were initially developed as multipurpose geostationary satellites. Its peculiar design arose partly from very unusual design constraints placed on it by India’s insistence that the satellite carries at least four different payloads.

The most significant of the payloads on INSAT was a package that could receive television programmes. Its importance arose from its special ability to transmit educational television programmes. The second package was designed to provide telephone, facsimile, data, telegraph, videotext and other communication services amongst metropolitan areas. The third was a remote sensing package built to survey the nation’s resources and thus help in its development planning. The last payload was a meteorological system capable of transmitting pictures of cloud-cover imageries and collecting weather information from several thousand unmanned data collection points on the ground; it served to trigger selected disaster­warning sirens in isolated coastal villages under the imminent threat of cyclones (hurricanes) [4].

INSAT-1 series (four satellites) constituted of mixed payloads (communication and meteorology). First two satellites of INSAT-2 series are multipurpose satellites, while 2C and 2D had only communication payloads. The same was the case with the INSAT-3 series in which 3B and 3C were dedicated communication satellites.11 INSAT-4 series of satellites has been initiated. It is proposed to have seven satellites in the series. INSAT-4A, 4B and 4CR satellites of this series are already operational.

These satellites are essentially meant for communication purposes with C and Ku band transponders.12 India has also launched a satellite called EDUSAT in 2004 in geostationary orbit. This is the first Indian satellite built exclusively for serving the educational sector. Over the years, the multipurpose INSAT satellite series are found carrying instruments for meteorological observation and data relay purposes too. However, in 2002 for the first time, an exclusive meteorological satellite called KALPANA-1 was launched. India has opened a new chapter in its weather forecasting and atmospheric research capabilities by positioning satellite called Megha-Tropiques in an orbit of 867 km during Oct 2011. It is India’s first major joint space project with France. This satellite has been launched to fill the void in regard to the atmospheric data in the equatorial region. This mission is also expected to provide boost for aerospace research in Indian universities.

Mini-satellites are more in demand in twenty-first century. Modern-day satellites are coming in various shapes and sizes like micro, nano and pico satellites. ISRO has sensed that investments in this arena have greater commercial viability. With increasing global demand for such satellite systems, ISRO is concentrating on nano­satellite market and has already launched few small satellites for various other countries. On their own, ISRO has launched two small satellites called IMS-1 (previously referred to as TWSat-Third World Satellite weighing around 83 kg) and IMS 1A also known as YouthSat. ISRO is encouraging and helping the educational institutions within and outside the country to design and develop small satellites. Some of the future Indian investments are expected to revolve around development of small satellites and clusters of nano-satellites.

India’s space programme has grown significantly mainly during last one or two decades. Presently, after reaching a certain level of proficiency in various areas of space technologies, Indian scientists are looking for fresh challenges. In November 2006, India’s space scientists and technologists held a brainstorming session at Bangalore to explore the viability of undertaking a manned mission to the Moon by the end of the next decade (2020) and were ‘unanimous in suggesting that the time is appropriate for India to undertake a manned mission’.

Over the years, India has followed the path envisaged by Prof. Vikram Sarabhai in 1970s of the socioeconomic application-oriented space vision for the country. For all these years, countries’ investments have mainly revolved around remote sensing and multipurpose application satellites and related launcher technologies. However, now the state is looking beyond Prof. Sarabhai’s vision of harnessing ‘space’ for the economic and social development. India’s ‘moon dream-a manned space mission’ is a case in point. During 1970s, Prof. Sarabhai had argued that India does not have the fantasy of competing with the economically advanced nations in the exploration of the Moon or the planets or manned spaceflight. This change in India’s policy should be viewed as a midcourse correction. It also demonstrates India’s increasing ambitions in this field.

On Apr 28, 2008, with the success of the PSLV-C9 mission, ISRO succeeded in placing in space ten satellites in the space in single mission. Some of India’s other missions also constituted of multiple satellite launching in a single launch. This indirectly demonstrates the possibility of India’s progress towards to developing multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs) technology.13 Such technology when fully developed could add teeth to India’s nuclear deterrence. This technology has the potential of making any missile defence configuration employed against the incoming nuclear threat meaningless.

The year 2008 demonstrated India’s reach into deep space by undertaking its first Moon mission. On Oct 22, 2008, India successfully launched its first satellite probe towards the Moon, named Chandrayaan-1. India’s lunar probe succeeded in finding the presence of water molecules on the surface of the Moon. Even though the mission was able to fulfil all its operational objectives, still it is important to note that this mission could stay on its course only approximately half of its designed lifetime. India is expected to launch its second Moon mission in collaboration with Russia by 2014 when a rover (robotic instrument) is expected to land on the Moon. India also has plans for developing its own regional navigational system by launching satellites in to the geostationary orbit in near future.

Apart from deep space missions like the Moon mission, India also has also invested into few other interesting programmes. On Jan 10, 2007, India had successfully launched a recoverable spacecraft into the orbit (mission was known as SRE). This mission was of far greater importance to India because it was for the first time India had tested the reusable launch vehicle technology. The capsule was placed in orbit at an altitude of 625 km and was successfully recovered after 11 days. The last phase of the mission was critical, and the indigenously developed re-entry technology proved its worth. This mission provided precious knowledge about navigation, guidance and control for the re-entry phase (from the outer space to Earth’s atmosphere). Also, this capsule had an indigenously developed thermal protection system essentially in form of silica tiles which proved its worth by withstanding extremely high temperatures during re-entry. This mission could be viewed as a first step towards fulfilling the dream of human space programme. However, India’s plan for a human space flight programme still remains in very early stages of development. Surprisingly, after the success of SRE mission, no other attempts have been made by ISRO to validate this technology by undertaking few more missions. All this clearly demonstrates that human space mission is not on the agenda of the India’s space programme, at least in near future.

India plans to launch its first dedicated astronomy satellite called ASTROSAT in near future. This would be a multiwavelength astronomy mission on an IRS-class satellite into a near-Earth, equatorial orbit by the PSLV. This nearly 2-ton satellite will sport three X-ray instruments that can collect hard and soft X-rays. A fourth instrument will be able to catch X-ray bursts coming from incredibly powerful

eruptions, such as those from giant stars. It is expected that the ASTROSAT’s twin ultraviolet (UV) telescopes will be the best instruments available to astronomers for viewing such objects as young galaxies glowing hot with the light of bright new stars.14 Primary emphasis of ASTROSAT would be to conduct studies of X-ray- emitting objects. This would be India’s first observatory wherein X-ray observations can be taken. However, this Indian programme appears to be running much behind the schedule (the planned launch was in 2008).

The basic limitation for the Indian space programme comes from the fact that the country is still devoid of cryogenic technology. For launches of heavier satellites, a third stage called the cryogenic stage is required. India has yet to mature this technology. In 1992, the then Russian President Boris Yeltsin was to transfer this technology to India but was pressured by the then US administration not do so, fearing that India could divert this technology for its missile programme. Subsequently, Russia had sold six cryogenic engines to India.

It is this cryogenic engine technology required for the GSLV launches that is giving ISRO a few nightmares. The year 2010 witnessed two unfortunate failures for ISRO. On Dec 25, 2010, ISRO’s GSLV-F06 mission with the GSAT-5P satellite onboard failed. The vehicle broke up 53.8 s from liftoff. Surprisingly, the launch failed in the ‘first stage’ of the launch process itself. Earlier on Apr 15, 2010, its first attempt to use an indigenously made cryogenic engine with its GSLV-D3 to launch the GAST-4 satellite had failed. It may take ISRO some more time to test this technology again. Unfortunately, almost for last two decades, India is working towards the development of this technology indigenously; however, the success has still eluded them.

Because of these two major failures in 2010 with GSLV system, India’s capacity of having operational satellites in space and also the transponder capability has reduced significantly. Along with this, two of India’s operational satellites in space are found not able to perform to the fullest of their potential. INSAT-4CR (launched on Sep 2, 2007) is facing problems because of the launching glitches. During the launch, the third stage of the carrier rocket had underperformed, resulting in the satellite being placed into a lower than planned orbit. To put the satellite back in the designed (actual) orbit, much of the fuel onboard of the satellite was consumed, and this in turn had probably reduced the designed 10-year life of satellite to almost the half. Also, INSAT 4B which was launched during March 2007 is being reported to have facing problems since July 7, 2010. There appears to be a power – related problem in one of the solar panels resulting into switching off 50% of the transponders onboard the satellite.

The positive aspect of ISRO’s space programme is their proficiency in launching satellites in the 1- to 2-ton category. PSLV has launched more than 40 satellites

(more than half of them are for other countries) into a variety of orbits to date. Last 21 consecutive missions by this vehicle have been successful.

One important reason behind the significant achievements by the Indian space community is the reasonable budgetary support provided by the government for all these years. ISRO has not faced problems in getting resources and has tended to receive steady governmental support. This is one field where generally bottom-up approach has been found in regard to the growth of overall space programme. It is ISRO which normally decides what projects to undertake and how to proceed. The governmenthas so far been supportive of most of ISRO’s plans. The value of ISRO’s overall assets today is approximately Rs. 100,000 crores ($25 billion) [5]. Since independence, India’s science and technology policies have more or less remained unchanged irrespective of the government in power. India’s space programme is placed directly under the prime minister and hence could be said to be relatively free of major bureaucratic delays.

ISRO has immediate plans for the upgradation of various technologies from propulsion to power systems. Like any other spacefaring nation, India is keen to induct lightweight composites and fibre structures into their platform systems which are expected to bring in major revolution towards weight-carrying capacity of the satellites. ISRO has interest in the ongoing research in this field. By 2025-2030, India proposes to reach the level of technology that they would be in a position to send a spacecraft to the outer space and recover it like an aircraft (on the same lines like the US sends its ISS missions like Atlantis, Discovery, etc.).

The narrative of Indian space programme mostly carried out by developed states (read Western) could be viewed as case of ‘asymmetric ignorance’. Their evalua­tions (particularly during early years of development of India’s space programme) have reflexively been grounded in assumptions about why a poor nation should have a space programme at all. Because the mission of space exploration has been a normatively Western idea, Indian space programme (other Asian programmes too) is understood in relation to aspirations for a Western modernity. Interestingly, the manifestation of Indian space programme does not represent a modernity that is completely Western nor fully postcolonial. It could be viewed as a modernity that is decentred, globalised, constantly transforming and at times even conflicting. India’s scientific and political community links the space programme with the alleviation of poverty, help in education and the requirement for reforms in social sector. Hence, by overcoming any disagreement within the state, India has succeeded in changing the perception from ‘why poor India should not have a space programme?’ to ‘India should have a space programme precisely because it is poor’.[82] By the beginning of twenty-first century with the ‘rise of India’ becoming imminent and the significant progress witnessed by India’s space programme, the perceptions are showing change. Also, the West has started realising the broader commercial relevance of space market in Asia context.

The thrust given by India towards expanding its space programme indicates that the state has major exceptions from its space agenda. It appears to be addressing issues related to space by giving due cognizance to geopolitical, technological and economic realities. From geopolitical viewpoint, India’s success with its space programme has boosted its ‘soft power’ status. In near future, dependence of devel­oping nations interested in space activities is going to fall more on India because of its space infrastructure and economical commercial launching facilities. In the imminent future, India is expected to play an important role towards the formulation of a global space regime which would involve not only the disarmament agenda but also formulation of a policy towards international technological collaboration over areas of mutual concern.

Rocket technology is likewise for both civilian and military applications. There are certain fundamental differences in regard to technology appreciation between space launch rockets and ballistic missiles. However, the similarity in basic science and technology makes it impossible to separate them completely or permanently. Scientists in various parts of the world (mainly Germany, erstwhile USSR, the USA and few European Nations) during the early 1920s and 1930s were attracted to the rocket development because of their interests in idea of space travel. In order to continue to develop these ideas, the scientific community engaged military sponsors in those periods.

Scientists and military leaders realised that rocket is a dual purpose system. It can launch a scientific payload (satellite) into outer space or can launch a warhead (conventional or nuclear) towards a target at distance of thousands of kilometres. The technology needs minor modifications for such purposes. In short, various civilian rocket programmes raise possibilities for missile development. Almost, every country capable of building large rockets has used their early models interchangeably for civilian and military role. The rocket used for the launch of first satellite Sputnik (1957) was derived from the first ICBM made by the erstwhile USSR (SS-6/R-7). Similar trend was observed with various states like Briton, France, China, India and Israel with the exception of Japan.1 Over a period of time, all these states have started developing specific task-based vehicles, be it space or missiles.

It has been always difficult to judge the exact intentions of a country—whether their objective is to launch a satellite or a missile, based on the knowledge of their expertise in rocketry field. It has been always possible for proliferators to conceal their military intentions. Formulations of some of the international arms control and non-proliferation systems did incur debate on such issues. In the event of Missile Technology Control Regime (MTRC) negotiations, the issue was raised ‘whether [163] space launch vehicles should be treated differently from offensive missiles in light of their legitimate civilian applications’. The USA was of the view that ‘civilian space launch vehicles had to be viewed as strictly equivalent to military missiles because they were technologically indistinguishable’ [1]. However, subsequently during negotiation phase, the USA was not able to maintain this position due to international pressures.

The purpose of this chapter is to highlight the politics behind undertaking space launches to actually demonstrate the missile development capabilities. This chapter also examines the interdependence of space regime on nuclear matters. The issues related to missile defence, a system ‘advertised’ as an alternative to nuclear deterrence mechanism or a system to negate the incoming nuclear missile threat, also have certain connotations in regard to space affairs. Various concerns in this regard are also discussed over here.

In China, scientists from the Chinese Academy of Sciences are looked upon as the nation’s pre-eminent scientific community and are also respected in society. They play a major role in deciding country’s strategic investments. They have influenced the Chinese leadership thinking towards development of its nuclear and space programme. In recent past, a core group of scientists have played a major role towards convening the military and political leadership in the country to make significant investments in satellite navigation system (Compass) and Moon programme [2]. China has successfully completed its first lunar mission and has launched its second robotic mission, Chang’e-2 on October 1, 2010, to celebrate 61 years of communist rule.

China has devised its lunar exploration project—known as Project Chang’e as three-stage project [3]. These states are:

Stage One—The work began on March 1,2003. This stage was aimed at building and launch of Moon probe satellite. This satellite was launched on Oct 24, 2007 (Chang’e-1), and the mission was scheduled to continue for a year. The mission was extended for some more time.

Stage Two—Here, China is expected to launch a Moon car and make a successful soft landing, patrol and explore the Moon and lay the groundwork for further Moon research. Chang’e-2 is scheduled to be launched in 2011 (actually the launch was done 1 year in advance).

Stage Three—China would be launching a small module and Moon robot to collect necessary samples, return safely, research the samples, provide data for a manned Moon landing and choose a location for China’s Moon base.

The Chinese conceptualisation regarding the Moon mission has the following broad objectives3:

• Three-dimensional survey of the Moon’s surface and analysis of the distribution of elements on lunar surface: This would be done by undertaking detection and analyses of the content and distribution of useful elements and types of materials on the lunar surface.

• Investigation of the characteristics of lunar regolith and calculation of the depth of lunar soil on the surface.

• Exploration of the circumstance between the Earth and the Moon: Aim is to explore the space environment between the Earth and the Moon and to record initial solar wind data and study the effect of solar activities on Earth-Moon space environment.

China has successfully completed the stage one of its Moon mission. Cheng’e-1 fully completed its mission on March 1, 2009. This spacecraft was de-orbited, and it impacted the Moon.

Water is fluid, soft, and yielding. But water will wear away rock, which is rigid and cannot yield. As a rule, whatever is fluid, soft, and yielding will overcome whatever is rigid and hard. This is another paradox: what is soft is strong.

Lao Tzu

Chinese philosopher (604 BC-531 BC)

The term soft power has become a part of popular security discourse since 1990, when it was first used by Prof. Joseph Nye in his book titled Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power [1]. Prof. Nye has developed this concept further in some of this subsequent works.

This chapter is in three parts. The first part outlines the theory, the concept, the notion as well as the critic of soft power in broad terms. The second part analyses the geopolitics of space technologies as a source of soft power. The third part explores the meaning of soft power in context of China’s space programme.

Asian states are working on various areas of technology from astronomical satellites to heavy lift launchers to space food and space clothing (for Moon travel) to asteroid mining. Any significant developments in fields like smart materials, robotics, communication systems and power and energy devices are expected to bring in

revolution in various aspects of space research. Japan is working on ambitious projects like space solar power with an intention of collecting solar power in space and zapping it down to Earth, using laser beams or microwaves. They propose to achieve this within the next two decades but will need a strong economical and tech­nological support. Japanese scientists are working on innovative concepts like space elevator. Significant breakthroughs in carbon nanotech technology are expected to boost this project. India has a major interest in reusable launch technologies. During the next two to three decades, states in the region are expected to enhance their expertise in such fields by using ‘step by step’ approach. Development of the technology leading to ‘launch on demand’ has significant strategic relevance, and various developed Asian states also would have interest in that arena.

Scenarios

As the above discussion underlines, there are various drivers which could decide the future of space programmes of Asian states. Each driver could have different connotation towards shaping the trajectory of individual state’s space programme. Also, relative importance of these drivers vis-a-vis each other will play a role towards determining the future direction of each country’s space programme.