Writing alternative histories is a fruitless pastime: after all, why not go and write proper fiction? On the other hand, it can be interesting to speculate what might have happened. [16]
The follow-on series of re-entry experiments after Dazzle, named Crusade, were cancelled in favour of developing Black Arrow. Let us postulate an alternative: Crusade goes ahead, and at the same time, the Black Knight launcher is developed. The 54-inch Black Knight would have been in production, as would have been the Kestrel. Waxwing development would not have been that much more expensive. One of the reasons for the cost of Black Arrow was not its development, but the cost of building one vehicle every 18 months or so – the production teams were proceeding at not more than ‘tick over’. In addition, setting up the vehicle at the range at Woomera took around a month – which meant that for a further 17 months the range would have to be mothballed. The launch teams would have to be found alternative employment during those months – you cannot build a new team from scratch every time. If the range had been in use, fitting in an extra launch or two does not cost that much.
So the Crusade experiments carry on until 1968 or 1970. Does that mean that the Black Knight programme would have stopped there? Not necessarily. As part of the development of the Chevaline programme (improvements to the Polaris missile), a series of launches were carried out between 1975 and 1979 on a vehicle called Falstaff, which used the large solid fuel Stonechat motor (tested in 1969) – although Black Knight would have done the job admirably.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but it does seem that RAE might have been better off proceeding with the 54-inch Black Knight and basing a launcher on it. It would have had Crusade, Black Knight instead of Falstaff for the Chevaline testing, and a satellite launcher as good as or better than Black Arrow. But it was not to be.
• If the Government had cancelled Blue Streak completely in 1960. Black Knight still goes ahead as part of the re-entry experiments, and we get a better Black Arrow because there is more money available – it is not being spent on ELDO. On the other hand, would the money have been spent on Black Arrow?
• If the proposed launcher had remained an Anglo-French project, on the lines of Concorde. The British would have had to go along with the French whether they liked it or not, and the vehicle would probably have been a good deal more reliable than Europa. Whether or not the resultant launcher would have been worth the effort is another matter. [17] convictions. Backing out of ELDO might have cost money and brought opprobrium down on British heads, but staying in and dragging their heels cost nearly as much money and was just as alienating. ELDO B might have had the prospect of being yet another money pit, but at least it was a project with some future, unlike ELDO A.
• If the proposal for the version of Europa III with four RZ 2 motors had gone ahead. It could well have been the success that Ariane was, but it would still have been unlikely that it would have changed the Government’s attitude to launchers!
But none of these did actually happen. [18]
