Air base in RB: Lukashenko does not want to swallow a hook

Alexander Lukashenko before elections was compelled to make attack against the Kremlin. Communicating with electorate at opening of a site of the second Minsk ring highway on October 6, the Belarusian president declared that the Russian air base is not necessary today to us.

Meanwhile Vladimir Putin already signed on September 18 the order that his subordinates carried on negotiations on air base placement with the Belarusian party. And the document was signed that day when the Russian president was crossed with the Belarusian colleague in Sochi.

On the basis of it some commentators already concluded that Putin выкрутилАлександру Lukashenko of a hand, achieved a consent to this inconvenient for its image and in principle object dangerous to Belarus.

The version expressed a certain secret package agreement also: the pier, for air base placement the Kremlin, probably, promised the credit and support on elections.

Now here it appears that everything is not so simple.

Moscow played a dirty trick before elections

«I observe recently cries of our opposition concerning placement of the Russian air base in the territory of Belarus. I do not know anything about it. The person who should make this decision, – I know nothing about it», – declared to Lukashenko on October 6.

As we see, he was cut to the quick by activity of internal political opponents which with pleasure grasped for exclusively unprofitable for the acting head, especially before elections, a subject.

Even Tatyana Korotkevich, Lukashenko’s competitor on elections on October 11 which other oppositionists suspect of game according to the scenario of the authorities, firmly opposed foreign bases. And more radical critics of a mode at all bomb the president according to the full program that supposedly caved in in front of Moscow and turns the blue-eyed republic into a target.

In this plan Lukashenko’s political enemies were accompanied willy-nilly by Moscow which in September suddenly took out a delicate question to the public sphere. At first the draft agreement on base was discussed in the government, and then – is put in the daddy for the signature to Putin.

I do not think that a most important task was to salt Lukashenko before elections. The Kremlin thinks planetary categories, wants to shake a fist at NATO officials, Americans. And the Belarusian base is only a make-shift. But nevertheless – Lukashenko salted, and before elections.

However, prime minister Dmitry Medvedev, being on September 8 on the Euroasian intergovernmental council in Grodno, calmed the Belarusian management: a pier, we will not force a question, we will solve in comfortable terms for you. But for Lukashenko this question дискомфортен in principle.

Matter not only in opposition

And business not so much even that the people as show polls, belong to base prospect watchfully. And not only that opposition куражится. Even unauthorized meeting against the Russian bases on October 4 in the center of the capital carried out.

After elections of ringleaders of street actions (these holidays of disobedience now are not dispersed not to spoil the "thaw" picture for observers of OSCE) can easily прижучить.

The population though does not want additional risk, especially to revolt against new Russian military facility does not begin. This alarm, in particular, will be muffled by a sharpening of material needs (the prices and tariffs restrain to an electorate campaign on sites, but then it is jerked).

Besides, who gives cheap energy resources and other help? Moscow. And in Russian the majority of the population of Belarus does not see invaders – the ideology of a brotherhood on the weapon deeply sits.

Yes, the base very much will not be pleasant to Ukraine, but to Kiev to arrange about it demarches not from a hand and so roofs are higher than problems.

Moreover, and the West, most likely, will swallow a pill in the form of air base in Bobruisk, will not begin to derail normalization of the relations with Minsk.

Eventually, Belarus thus breaks nothing in respect of international law. She is an ally of Russia, has uniform air defense system with it and so forth. The neutrality in the Belarusian constitution is written down only as the purpose. And NATO, after all, strengthens the infrastructure in the adjacent countries.

The fairy tale for the naive

Why the air base subject to the Belarusian president so burns? He even hastened to declare that speeches about its placement in the territory of Belarus was never conducted. Though for the first time publicly to place here the Russian Minister of Defence Sergey Shoygu declared a destructive aviaregiment intention of Moscow on April 23, 2013 at a meeting with Lukashenko in Minsk.

Later on the same subject the commander of the Air Force of Russia Victor Bondarev, head of the Russian diplomacy Sergey Lavrov, the same Medvedev expressed. And the Russian representatives submitted a question as in principle solved, specifying only terms, a dislocation, equipment models.

And you will believe, what the absolute master of Belarus was till today not in a course about so categorical and far-reaching intentions of the ally?

By the way, Medvedev in Grodno in clear told: the preparing agreement on placement in the territory of Belarus of the Russian air base is implementation of the two-way deals reached still in 2009. Bilateral, notice.

At last, if to present that Putin last month signed the corresponding order, at all перемолвившись with Lukashenko, it means scandalous disrespect for the president sovereign, let and the allied country.

So its present position of type «I not in a course» is calculated on the unsophisticated inhabitant who, however, makes electorate bulk. Lukashenko tries any way to correct before elections image of the absolute master of the blue-eyed republic – image on which another’s air base obviously casts a shadow.

«It is not necessary to us base today. Especially military and air forces. Certain arms are necessary to us. About what I publicly too spoke to Putin and earlier Medvedev», – on October 6 the Belarusian head hotly proved, actually confirming with that that discussion with the Russian administration about air base nevertheless was conducted, and not once.

«Planes, instead of bases are necessary today to us. We have fine pilots, at us good school of pilots of military, civil», – added Lukashenko.

And here it is sincere. But Putin does not want to give warplanes to the Belarusian Air Force. Moscow prefers to come here with the weapon, to occupy the base seriously and for a long time.

"Krymnash" too began with the Russian base

Attracts attention that Lukashenko repeated twice: the base is not necessary to us today. The reservation shows "today": he feels that the resource of resistance is limited and the Kremlin can pressurize. Russian «The independent newspaper» wrote recently that at us Moscow wants to have operating base in January of next year.

So, quite possibly, the Belarusian head should change rhetoric as it was in the history with "Beltransgaz": at first sounded, what this strategic asset never we will give, and then, after the compelled sale to "Gazprom" – well why to us this rusty pipe?

However it is doubtless that Lukashenko will resist to the last, to tighten a question, to heat it in particulars and the procedural moments.

He perfectly understands: the air base is a disastrous hook. "Krymnash" too began with the Russian base.

Having unpacked in this sense Belarus, Moscow easily can put then here and the second base, and a third, come with ground forces.

And the Russian military presence will be stronger here, the it becomes more dangerous to the Belarusian management (both to Lukashenko, and people after it) to twitch in any was sense. Ukraine moved …

And from that Moscow suggests to swallow a disastrous hook in "comfortable" terms, becomes essentially more cheerful not.

Alexander Klaskovsky