Syrian conflict: gleam of hope of the end of war

Comparison between any wars has artificial character. Each war is unique, especially large-scale and long. As well as misfortune in separately taken family, according to L.N. Tolstoy’s stamping formulation. Nikolaevich the fighting artillery officer was left in due time. He was a good judge of misfortunes of war and in a world zhelannost. Wrote the famous novel and fine stories on this subject.

The bloody chronicle of war in Syria proceeds the fifth year and already exceeded duration of the Great Patriotic War.
War in Syria brought destructions comparable to the Second World War and broke all conceivable records of exasperation.
War in Syria is accompanied by smaller number of victims, but a large number of refugees. If in realities of the XXI century the formulation «small victims» with reference to 250.000 victims is admissible. If to remember million the wounded crippled, deserted. If to realize level of the Syrian migration – from the rendered habitable places it is broken over a half of the pre-war population. 11.5 millions from 20. During wild slaughter in Cambodia (1976-1979) and Rwanda (1994) it was not noted so mass outcome of unfortunate people.

War in Syria became the range for finally got out of hand experiment «Arab spring». It doomed there is no time safe, modest and secular Syria on emergence of IGIL. On mass executions and medieval canons, on a slave trade and a unichizheniye of women, on withdrawal of human bodies and treasures of ancient civilizations. On an area of an attraction of dzhikhadist of the whole world, the earth to them glass wool.
War in Syria, at all involvement of the overseas countries and the organizations – civil. It splits the country, splits up it for conflicting splinters and enclaves. Shipastym a skating rink breaks related and friendly links. The winner in civil war does not receive reparations and contributions. Blown up, burned, crushed, lost it is necessary to restore all for years, and it is rather – decades. If there will be a chance of restoration.

The freakish texture of geopolitical interests of world and regional powers, national and religious antagonism, mass outcome of the population, the actual crash of economy, unprecedented cruelty of fights, personal motives of their participants almost destroyed Syria.
As wrote to R.Rozhdestvensky about That War: «There is a hope of it almost».

After end of an anniversary session of General Assembly of the United Nations, after negotiations between presidents of Russia and the USA in destiny of Syria there was this hope, this chance, this gleam of probability of the termination of bloody orgy and infinite chaos.

Between Russia and the USA similarity of approaches concerning the conflict in the Middle Eastern country and methods of permission of this conflict is ascertained. Similarity of positions is sounded by the head of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the head of US State department. It emphasized V. V. Putin and B. Obama, let and without convocation of joint press conference.
Washington agreed to remove from the political agenda the requirement about B. Assad’s immediate resignation from a post of the Syrian president. For certain "transition period" which is impossible without legality and order restoration. If not in all Syria, but on the most part of the country with remained population and after completion of war.

Moscow noted that only Syrians, but not very dear leaders of very democratic countries are competent to elect the post-war power. In Afghanistan in the spring of last year very qualitative election of the president – yes so was already organized that results of vote proclaimed from Washington already in the autumn. Without such boring formalities, as protocols of election commissions, counting of votes, etc. The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation and the Pentagon came into direct and continuous contact to the purpose to avoid any armed incidents in the Syrian sky and on the earth.
Several days earlier similar communications are carried out between Moscow and Tel Aviv, including with the arrangement on an exchange of prospecting data.
Turkey made a diametrical foreign policy turn and agrees recovery of the Syrian status quo of a sample of 2011. Doing an emphasis on lack of Kurdish statehood in 2011.
The leadership of Iraq and Iran welcomed the Russian participation in rescue of Syria, Baghdad and Tehran become visible participants of an original coalition against the caliphate.
US authorities stopped reception of recruits in fighters from IGIL in the territory of Turkey and Jordan. The remained 200 people continue (search wishing cheaply to buy the American SUVs and rifles) trainings. To crush caliphate army in 40-50 thousand people not easy. Especially to two hundred greedy markitant on a gain.

The Federation Council of the Russian Federation unanimously supported an initiative of President V. V. Putin about use of armed forces of Russia outside of the country. It is a question of the sanction on military and air operation in Syria, according to an official request of the duly elected authorities of the country.
Application of the Russian armies in Syria excludes contact forms of fight with groups of the caliphate and with all other participants of multilateral war. All staff of the Russian mission is completed with officers and the military personnel of contract service on strictly voluntary basis.
Comments of the American authorities on the military and air operation Russian Federation in Syria were consolidated to retelling of the fact of negotiations between leaders of two countries and to existence of common interests on fight against terrorism in general and with radical bandits of the caliphate in particular.
At all indignation of Riyadh of a role of Russia in B. Assad’s preservation purchase 950 armoured troop-carriers BMP-3 at the Russian Federation in power took place at once. The media discontent and defensive construction coexist in parallel. Approximately as the official purposes of the American fight against IGIL and real objects of the caliphate in the Syrian-Iraq district.
Reaction and to the offer of Russia is surprisingly constrained to limit the western activity in the Syrian sky. First, because this activity is illegal, Damascus did not ask NATO about bombing raids. Let and on opponents of authorities in power and all Syrian people. Secondly, efficiency of the western bombings for the whole year is insignificant. It is characterized perfectly by a fresh episode with raid of the French Rafale. Three most up-to-date planes let out some rockets on fighters, including KR Storm Shadow in cost about $1.5 million apiece. One is as a result destroyed… excavator! The hardest loss is caused to fighting capacity of dzhikhadist, will dig other excavator…

In military and air operation of Russia against IGIL are involved:

– the newest strike fighters of Su-34 with radius of flights to 1.100 km and fighting loading of 8 tons. The range of arms Su-34 demands separate and volume article;
– the heavy multi-purpose fighters Su-30 with various combinations of the high-precision weapon;
– attack planes of Su-25 "Rook", planes of direct support of armies at remoteness from home airfield of 500-700 km and with fighting loading to 4.5 tons. Are capable to aim bombing at any time, under any weather conditions, in the district of the most difficult relief;
– the front all-weather Su-24 bombers with range of action of 560 km and a big variety of rocket and bombing "stuffing" in gross weight to 7.5 tons;
– shock helicopters Mi-24 and Mi-28, planes of radio-electronic investigation and suppression, transport Il-76 liners and An-124.

From everything listed the Syrian Air Force possesses only small amount of Su-24 acquired more than 20 years ago. Planes were not upgraded and in the internal conflict are applied restrictedly. Historically the complete set of the Air Force of Syria had a destructive bias for counteraction to raids of the Israeli aircraft. Threat to the existence of the country appeared other.

Soon approach of the Syrian army to IGIL positions is probable with active military and air support of the Air Force of the Russian Federation. Application will be found of tanks already fixed in coastal Latakia, armoured cars, artillery pieces and TOS "Blaze of the sun" under control of the Syrian crews. Without allies, without air defense, without the continuous front and with the stretched communications it is necessary to the caliphate heavy. One business to declare self-sacrifice and to use disagreements among enemies, to trade and kill at the same time. Another matter to face superior forces of the motivated and professional opponent acting within international law and battling for the country.

Against the caliphate it is necessary to involve the widest land coalition in operations – Kurdish groups, a Shiite militia, fighters of Lebanese "Hezbollah", secular opposition within the program of national reconciliation. Participation in battles of the Iranian active armed forces and KSIR divisions is possible. On desert open spaces of northern and central Syria there are good chances to break a military situation towards the long-awaited world. Already in current, 2015. Unfortunately, not only by negotiations, but also military image. How to carry on negotiations with executioners, what to oppose them to the blood-stained swords? Force ломит force. It is important not to spray it in vain, to direct in critically vulnerable for the caliphate painful points.

The victory over war is very necessary to Syrians.
One on all, behind the price they did not stand.
Also deserved the right independently to define the future of own country – political and any other.
As it was told the last year of the Great Patriotic War: «Crush a reptile in her den!». So there was a destiny of the Middle East that Syria and Iraq became a den of IGIL. Terrorist metastasises are already active in Libya, Yemen, Afghanistan, other foreign countries. The caliphate is necessary for crushing there that it did not come to us.

Dasha Gasanova