The Game of Influence

The Game of Influence is largely political in nature, with the major pow­ers vying for greater influence in a variety of arenas. As a result, the game’s scope may be confined to a region or along a much broader scale. For instance, a major power may seek to wield influence on a global scale, as the United States does, or the goal may be more limited in nature, such as China attempt­ing to assert dominance in the South China Sea. The major powers seek to dictate the “rules of the road” and to be accepted as the legitimate authority in their desired spheres. And while the game’s scope ranges across political and military arenas, the Game of Influence will not necessarily be played in every, or even the majority, of possible spheres. Instead, each power will only engage the other major power in the areas most relevant to its national interests.

Military power is often utilized in an important supporting role, but the focus of the two sides is not military victory or conquest. The major powers will largely seek to advance their goals through political posturing, economic power, and diplomatic dealings, but “soft” power is not sufficient when engaging another major military power. The political narrative of a state must be backed up by military power, by the credible threat of force. Force is one of the keys to deter violent actions by others and also serves as a tool for compellence. Military power is thus necessary to “enforce” and make credible political moves.

Despite this essential military aspect, the game remains largely non­zero-sum. Both powers will attempt to achieve their own interests, but one side’s “gain” is not necessarily the other side’s “loss” because both powers do not value all aspects of the game equally. The stakes in the game vary from incident to incident; one power may view an aspect of the game as more important than the other power does or both sides may hold similar views of the stakes. Nev­ertheless, the overall stakes are relatively symmetric in that both sides see the totality of maintaining and gaining influence in the game as important to their national interests. Responses to moves by the other side are determined by the nations’ levels of interest. Because the stakes vary, a response to an opposing move may not always be seen as necessary, and each side can escalate or dees – calate within the same game as interests dictate. Finally, the Battle over a Third Party may be played at the same time as the Game of Influence. But if a Game of Influence is played after a Great Power Game begins, the Game of Influence will take on a significantly different character due to the Great Power Game’s encompassing nature.

Rationale/explanation for the game. Military power in the Game of Influ­ence is utilized much differently than in the models of war familiar to Western militaries before the Cold War. Force is not used directly to prepare for or to engage in large-scale battle, but is utilized as a means of influencing the actions of the adversary.2 Now one of the primary goals of utilizing military power is shaping the national populations’ opinions of the ongoing competition, and both powers must be aware that there are internal and external audiences to be addressed. The primary objective for using force is not destroying an adver­sary’s military, though that may play a role in limited situations. The central objective for military power is to serve as a tool in convincing a power to accept the other side’s objectives.

What would it look like if the United States and China were engaged in this game? The ongoing South China Sea dispute over maritime boundaries and acceptable behavior in international waters is illustrative of this type of game. This is not primarily a military conflict, although military power is a neces­sary tool for both sides. China’s goal is apparently to have its interpretation of maritime laws and conduct accepted as the international norm. The United States, on the other hand, seeks to maintain the current norm. For both par­ties, this involves crafting different political narratives for regional and inter­national audiences. But it is also likely that both the United States and China may seek to gain influence and/or demonstrate influence by shows of military presence. This is not necessarily a demonstration of force, but, in the case of the United States, it is demonstrating that its navy maintains its right to oper­ate in international waters. In this game, it is possible that a military incident will occur, but military conquest or victory in a conflict is not the end game. The end game is the ability to define and, if necessary, legitimately enforce the norms in the region.

The Game of Influence is also taking place in the broader maritime arena. China is seeking greater control of exclusive economic zones (EEZs) as well as waters it defines as core interests outside EEZs or territorial waters. For China, regional and international acceptance of its control in the region and of its right as a naval power to engage in limited policing is crucial to its inter­ests. China maintains intermittent patrols and limited interdiction in these rel­evant sea areas with the goal of limiting resource extraction or transit by other nations. And even if not acknowledged fully in the international arena, a lim­ited acceptance of Chinese control by fishermen or resource extraction compa­nies in the region would be a win in this game for the Chinese because it would show that Chinese norms were accepted over those promulgated by the United States. Military power thus serves to bolster political control, but the use of military force is not the focus of this competition.