Tiangong operations

The news of a yearlong residency on the ISS came a few weeks after closer cooperation between Europe and China was reported. This could, it was sug­gested, develop into the possibility of an ESA astronaut flying aboard a Chinese spacecraft by 2020. Whether this would be to a Tiangong station or the ISS was not clear and remains an open issue to be decided as objections, technical issues, and logistics are debated in the coming years. With the expected reduction or demise of ISS operations after 2020 and the predicted increase in Chinese space station operations from that date, clearly the opportunity to continue and perhaps increase the rate of flying European astronauts on long-duration missions has a certain Eastern promise to it.

The Chinese have also indicated a desire to create their own large space station from which to expand their manned space flight operations, possibly looking towards the Moon and perhaps far beyond. Their first steps were com­pleted between 1999 and 2008 with Shenzhou operations, developing manned space flight capability and the infrastructure to support that effort in launch, orbital operations, and recovery. Their successful maiden flight of one person in 2003 drew upon the experiences (and particularly the design) of the Russian program, giving the Chinese a head start in developing their own program. They were to build upon this experience far quicker than either the Soviets or Americans had been able to in the 1960s. By 2008, the Chinese had demonstrated the capability of flying up to three crew members for several days, as well as EVA capability that could be used to support future space station operations. What had taken the Soviets eight missions to achieve with Vostok/Voskhod and the Americans around 10 missions with Mercury and Gemini, the Chinese accomplished in just three flights.

There were of course significant differences between the 1960s and the 2000s, most notably in the number of missions flown in the 1960s and what other achievements had been accomplished. The Soviets had flown 16 manned missions between April 1961 and June 1970, including the first man in space, first female, first group flight, first crew, first EVA, first manned docking and crew transfer (by EVA) and longest solo manned space flight at 18 days. In contrast, the Soviets had only achieved one manned docking and relatively little spacewalking experi­ence in comparison with the Americans during Gemini and Apollo. The five Apollo missions dispatched to the Moon between December 1968 and April 1970 added very little to the database of low Earth orbit operations, but volumes to explorations away from the planet. It is certain that the Chinese will have studied the lessons learned by the Americans during their unmanned precursor lunar mis­sions and the Apollo experience, and from the Soviet successes and setbacks in both their manned and unmanned lunar exploration program.

Although the Moon may indeed be a future target of Chinese space planners, the immediate focus for the next few years is the creation of a series of space stations leading to the establishment of a large complex. This will be similar to the gradual development of Soviet space station operations at Salyut, Mir, and finally the ISS, but again over a much shorter timescale and with far fewer missions. Once again, the Chinese will be learning from others in order to advance their own program without the need to mount unnecessary and expensive development missions. Official Chinese reports have stated that Tiangong-1 is intended as an experimental test bed, designed to develop the skills of rendezvous and docking that are essential to support a larger space station. The first Tiangong is expected to support three missions, one unmanned (Shenzhou 8 in 2011) and two manned (Shenzhou 9 in 2012 and Shenzhou 10 by 2013). Once these missions are com­pleted, the station will be de-orbited later in 2013, to be replaced by the much larger Tiangong-2 and Tiangong-3 laboratories.

According to the Chinese, Tiangong-2 will be able to support much more sophisticated experiments and research than its pioneering predecessor. Tiangong 3 will be a multimodule design (possibly resembling the Mir configuration) which will be resupplied by Progress-type unmanned freighters. The Chinese goal is to have a fully functional (ISS class) space station in orbit by 2020. If this does occur, it will have taken them less than 10 years, in comparison with the 40 yr period between the first Salyut and completion of the ISS!