Future of Aviation

or most of the twentieth century— ever since the Wright brothers took to the air in 1903—the prospects for aviation seemed brighter with each passing year. From the start of transcon­tinental passenger flights in the 1930s, through the beginning of the jet age in the 1940s, to supersonic and wide-body air travel in the 1970s, progress was rapid. Air transportation made the world seem smaller, and by the 2000s it had given rise to a billion-dollar tourist industry. Some people thought nothing of flying across the Atlantic Ocean from Europe to America for a weekend’s shopping or from the United States to a Pacific island for a vacation.

Air travel is currently growing at 3 to 5 percent each year, and air cargo trans­portation is growing even faster. New airports are being planned and existing ones made larger to cope with this growth. Increasing numbers of people are taking up sports flying activities, such as gliding, microlight flying, sky­diving, and paragliding. The aviation industry provides many thousands of jobs, especially in the richer countries. In its short history, aviation has trans­formed the world. Can it continue to do so in the future?

Challenges to Airline Travel

The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, when airliners were targeted by terrorists, caused a temporary drop in the number of people wanting to fly, especially long-distance. It also led to new security measures to counter the terrorist threat. In the twenty-first century, air passengers will continue to
experience a high level of security checks at airports.

While terrorism may not stop people from flying, environmental concerns will affect the future of aviation. Scientists now highlight carbon emis­sions from airplanes as contributing substantially to global warming. Environmentalists suggest higher fares and cutbacks in airline travel. Some aviation experts favor bigger planes that can carry more people on fewer flights. Others argue that improved, fuel- efficient engines will be the answer. Another problem is noise pollution around airports, although today’s jets are 75 percent quieter than jets were in the 1960s.

Rising costs, especially for jet fuel, will affect the airline industry. There is fierce competition between low-cost airlines, which offer cheaper flights with few extras, and the established long­distance airlines. There may not be room for many small airlines to operate, and the tendency for major airlines to merge is likely to continue.