Strategic Factors

Japan-China-India are found being more ambitious in defining their priorities in space than ever been in the past. Their space policies are responding not only to their own aspirations of emerging as a major global actor but also to the space efforts of other powers.[332] Apart from civilian benefits, they have also witnessed the advantages the US forces have received during all these years from their military space assets. Even a state like Japan has passed a law during 2008/2009 to allow military use of space and proposes to strengthen the national security through the development of space.

In particular, post-1991 Gulf War, the concept of militarisation of space is not being viewed as a taboo globally. Japan has launched spy satellites to address the North Korean threat, and states like India and China have dual-purpose remote sensing satellites. India proposes to launch communication satellites for its armed forces in near future. India and China have plans for independent regional/global navigational systems. Smaller states within the region like Pakistan, Indonesia and Iran may get support from China to develop their own military-related space assets. The future emphasis for all these states could be towards development of small satellites which are cheap, relatively easy to launch and offer almost the same utilities as normal satellites.

China appears to be viewing war in space as an integral part of future military operations. Chinese test of its anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon in 2007 has reinforced China’s status as a true military space power, equal to the USA and Russia. This puts the US space systems at risk in any future conflict with China [13]. It is also likely that China has developed satellite jamming capabilities too. Naturally, this puts the satellite systems of not only the USA but also that of other states within the region at risk. Many western analysts feel that there is ‘suggestiveness’ in Chinese actions regarding the weaponisation of space. General Xu Qiliang, commander of the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Air Force, was interviewed on November 1, 2009 by China’s PLA Daily, and he has articulated the importance of space for the military. According to him, military competition has shifted towards space, and it is a historical inevitability [14]. At the beginning of 2010, a senior US defence official argued that ‘the Chinese have stated that they oppose the weaponisation of space but their actions seem to indicate the contrary intention’.[333] India has also pronounced its plan to develop anti-satellite technologies (not test). States within the region which do not have indigenous satellite manufacturing and launch capabilities can still possess anti-satellite capabilities with reasonable knowledge of missile technology or even with expertise in developing satellite jamming capabilities.

Future Chinese actions would largely depend on how international community (read the USA) succeeds towards establishing a globally acceptable space regime. The USA has already withdrawn from the anti-ballistic missile (ABM) treaty with Russia. It is strongly pushing its missile defence programme by trying to overcome technological limitations. The US approach of all these years indicates that it has no intentions in getting trapped under any treaty mechanism that could harm its interests in space. In view of this, it is unlikely that any globally acceptable space treaty mechanism would emerge in coming few decades.