Assessment

Many universally recognised space-based and satellite systems are inherently dual­use technologies, with both civilian and military applications. Pakistan is yet to have a dedicated ‘military space system’. Hence, Pakistan’s military space capabilities may be inferred from its civilian space programme.

Pakistan probably depends on civil communication satellites for military com­munication requirements and may be using the information provided by navigation and meteorological satellites for planning military manoeuvres. While a detailed investigation of the impact of dual-use space systems on the military preparedness of Pakistan is not the purpose over here, some broad implications can be discerned.

Pakistan is not even a second-tier space power. (The first tier could be the US, European Union (EU) and Russia, and the second tier could be China, India and Japan). With non-affordable costs, limited domestic expertise availability, restrictions on technology transfer and a spoiled international reputation, Pakistan is likely to remain a peripheral space power, at least in the near future. However, it is important to note their association with China which is likely to assist them for development of their space programme as well as to provide with ready-made satellite-derived information.

Despite of SUPARCO’s existence for many years, the process of development in the space arena has been relatively slow. Pakistan is gradually progressing in this field and will take some more time, probably a decade or so, to establish full capability of launching its own satellites into space. SUPARCO’s success, to a large extent, will also depend on the financial backing received from the Pakistani government and the success of the collaborations with international space giants in the near future.

All this is not likely to limit their access to space resources or operational capa­bilities in the present. The easy accessibility of numerous and growing commercial launch services has increased the ability of many states to develop and operate satellite systems for various purposes or purchase ‘reception rights’ from existing commercial satellite constellations. Like many other nation-states, Pakistan also could be a beneficiary of this ‘space reality’.

The capabilities of commercial satellites all over the world are getting dramati­cally improved on a regular basis. A few US licensed companies and Israeli firms plan to make 0.5-1-m-resolution satellite imagery commercially available in the near future.36 Other developed nations may also join this business of the high – resolution imagery market. Such images are good enough to detect and identify nuclear sites and production facilities, airfields, oil refineries, troop concentrations, etc. Pakistan is expected to derive benefits from such commercial ventures for its intelligence gathering.

Currently, Pakistan is using LANDSAT and SPOT images overtly for civilian purposes. The military potential of such commercial satellites mainly depends on factors like optical resolution, spectrum, orbital features, sun angle and return time. For military reconnaissance purposes, satellite ‘resolution’ plays a major role towards providing quality input.

Satellites with resolutions of 10-15 m can provide useful information for strategic planning. The SPOT system is the primary operational example in this category. Today, Pakistan receives SPOT images with a resolution of 10 m or even less. It is important to note that SPOT has played an important role in revealing details of the situation at the Chernobyl nuclear reactor complex. Most importantly, SPOT and LANDSAT images were embargoed during the 1990-1991 Gulf War,

indicating that these images contained militarily useful information.[68] Hence to a certain extent, their requirements could be satisfied by ‘purchasing’ the data.

At the same time, it should be appreciated that the military utility of systems with resolutions of between 15 and 30 m is limited. Such images do not have much significance at the tactical level. Hence, Pakistan’s dependence on SPOT and LANDSAT may not be of much use during the actual operations phase. This is mainly because very low-resolution images may not be sold during the war period or they may even be totally be blocked by the company. Also, the Badr-II system does not have a good resolution (approximately 250 m).[69] Hence, it could be inferred that Pakistan’s ‘military dependence’ on space technologies is mainly peace-time specific, and the satellite inputs could essentially be used only for military planning purposes. In case of an actual war scenario, Pakistan would have to depend on China for supply of tactical information based on satellite imagery.

NOAA satellite inputs may not have much military utility other than their use for predicting meteorological conditions on the battlefield. These satellite inputs will come handy, particularly for undertaking aerial operations during the conflict phase. These satellites with a resolution of around 1.1 km[70] could in some way be helpful for topography and terrain analysis.

Interestingly, nuclear Pakistan does not have robust command, control, com­munications and intelligence systems (C3I) in place. Given the economic and technological constraints, this is not likely to materialise for some time to come [12]. The PAKSAT-1R would help Pakistan to improve its military communication network.

The Pakistani satellite programme has a clear bias towards remote sensing technologies for obvious reasons. It understands the value of remote sensing in the war effort. These techniques are very handy for identifying troop and tank movements as well as activities in underground bunkers. With Chinese help, Pakistan is trying to develop a network to acquire robust and versatile space reconnaissance capability. Pakistani interest (with Chinese help) in the development of a new small, solid-propellant space lifter would provide them an opportunity to hurl small satellites into orbit for broad military, civil and commercial applications.

But, being a signatory to the Outer Space Treaty,[71] Pakistan cannot plan to place in orbit around the earth any objects carrying nuclear weapons or any other kinds of weapons of mass destruction or station such weapons in outer space in any other manner. Pakistan has signed this treaty on ‘Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies’ (signed on December 9, 1967, and ratified on August 4, 1968). Hence, it is technically (overtly) bound to making use of outer space only for exploration and in accordance with international law, including the Charter of the United Nations, in the interest of maintaining international peace and security and promoting international cooperation and understanding.

Post 9/11, the US policy interests in Pakistan encompass a wide range of issues, including counterterrorism, nuclear stability in South Asia, missile proliferation, growing Asian markets and human rights. Today, the US considers Pakistan as its ‘vital ally’ in its war against terrorism and has nominated it in the category of major non-NATO ally. Hence, in future, US-Pak technology collaboration is expected to be on an upswing. It is important to note that in spite of Osama bin Laden being found on Pakistani soil, the US is not showing any signs of abandoning Pakistan. Hence, some direct and indirect help for the US could help Pakistan to make progress in the areas of RMA and network-centric warfare.

Given Pakistan’s lack of strategic depth, it is expected that in the event of an Indian missile strike, Pakistan would have just 3 min warning time. Clearly, this is much less time than the 15 min warning PADS (Pakistan Air Defence System) provides in case of an attack by enemy aircraft.41 Hence, no perfect early warning mechanism exists for Pakistan. This is where Pakistan expects to get help from AWACS and other IT infrastructure in order to device a system for getting adequate early warning. This could be one way to cater for the absence of any space-based warning system.

Pakistan has succeeded in putting few indigenously made satellites into orbit, riding on Chinese or Russian launches. It has also managed to form links with commercial ventures of the US, France and the EU. However, Pakistan has still long way to go in the space field. Nuclear Pakistan is incapable of starting a space arms race in the subcontinent. However, Pakistan understands the importance of space technologies, and if it plays ‘space politics’ well, then in the near future, it would be able to satisfy many of its strategic needs of satellite data by ‘outsourcing’ the space necessities. It is important to note that Pakistan being missile capable is in position to develop an ASAT system, if need be.

As the trend suggests, Pakistan is likely to get onto the Chinese space wagon in the near future. Pakistan may also explore the possibilities of engaging other Muslim countries since the Islamic network in the arena of ‘space collaboration’ already exists. It could look for collaboration with countries like Malaysia which have already started modest investments in these technologies. Pakistan is expected to try for accessing commercial technologies available in the market to get military imageries.

Pakistan desires to acquire more RMA capabilities in order to match the Indian force structure. Its Afghanistan border is in a state of flux even after one decade has past post 9/11. Its uneasiness with the ‘rise of India’ and India’s relevance in Afghanistan is well-known. Hence, it is continuing with military transformation aimed at developing basic force projection and more advanced RMA capabilities. It understands that the accurate and timely information is the key for increasing battle-space awareness. On the other hand, the state also desires to use the satellite technology for the purposes of agriculture, commercial communication, disaster management and various other social needs. Hence, in years to come, Pakistan is expected to increase their interest and investment in space arena.