The USA were frightened of phantoms from Russia

Washington warned Moscow from participation in the Syrian war.

The United States are concerned messages on carrying out by Russia of power operations in Syria and consider such actions "destabilizing". It to journalists was declared by the official representative of the White house Josh Ernest. «We in a course of messages that Russia, probably, developed the military personnel and planes in Syria, and we watch closely these reports. Any military support of a mode of Assad in any purposes, whether it be in placement of the military personnel, deliveries of planes, the weapon or financing, has at the same time destabilizing and counterproductive character», – Ernest declared.

As formal reason for the statement messages served in social networks from fighters at war against Bashar Assad. Allegedly they noticed in the province Idlib the Russian bespilotnik and one Su-34 whom the Syrian army does not have. Other messages said that the Russian aircraft even struck blows to positions of «The Islamic state».*

The representative of the American administration noticed that does not undertake to judge reliability of these messages. It looks quite strange. Arrival of military equipment and furthermore its fighting application could be noticed by modern means of investigation in addition in the region on which the close attention of the Pentagon is riveted.

More in ABC News interview the chairman of the Incorporated committee of chiefs of staffs of the USA general Martin Dempsey clearly expressed. He too could not confirm that the Russian army participated in operations. But noticed that if it it will do, will prevent to fight from YOKES to Americans. After all, according to Dempsey, the USA operate selectively to different groups in Syria, and Russia can strike blows to Assad’s any armed opponents.

It turns out that, on the one hand, Washington urges Moscow to participate in a certain coalition against radical Islamists, with another, – declares what to define this fight the USA should only. What signal to the world tries to send the White house, speaking about possible Russian participation in the Syrian war?

– I trust officials not the USA, and Russia more. The press secretary of our president Dmitry Peskov already told that it is not necessary to trust hearings. As the expert, I understand that the Russian representative does not dissemble, – the adviser of the director of the Russian institute of strategic researches, the expert in the Middle East Elena Suponina speaks. – Actually, from where there were data on allegedly Russian planes in Syria? On the one hand, the Syrian fighters some of them even report about the Russian attack planes consist in the terrorist organizations. It is clear that to trust them at all does not cost. On the other hand, there were some messages in small Israeli editions which in the Israel do not enjoy confidence.

I consider that similar messages are extended by those to whom activization of diplomatic efforts of Russia directed on the solution of the Syrian crisis today is unprofitable. Just now there was a chance, let and small, on achievement of a consent between Russia and the USA. It appeared thanks to efforts of Moscow on reconciliation of the government of Syria and moderate opposition. It is unprofitable to radical fighters, they understand that arrangements will be against them. I can assume that it is unprofitable also to Israel. Despite proximity of the conflict, it is not so dangerous, but the Syria, the better for Israel is weaker. It is known that these two countries are in the hostile relations.

"Joint venture": – If Americans too want to solve a problem of YOKES, why broadcast unconfirmed hearings?

– By and large, Americans of anything do not accuse Russia. They simply say that take into consideration messages. They are compelled to react, as Dmitry Peskov was compelled to react. In the beginning messages on the Russian planes looked as full nonsense, but their began to duplicate, journalists began to ask questions, and representatives as Russia, and were compelled to answer the USA.

To Josh Ernest asked a question, and he answered. And did not answer in the affirmative. Americans are now adjusted to find mutual understanding with Russia on the Syrian question. However, the USA use any occasion in the information field, directed against us. If someone dismisses hearings why not to make them "trump".

Mutual understanding across Syria between Moscow and Washington while is not present. Nevertheless, Barack Obama understands that a situation there the bad. The American policy in the Middle East does not bring good results. And here successes which in the region are, were reached thanks to Russian diplomatic help. Two striking examples – chemical disarmament of Syria and the big help of Moscow at negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program. Without assistance of Russia from one of these problems Americans would not consult.

"Joint venture": – What exit Americans if their former policy across Syria failed can find for themselves?

– The USA now should refuse idea of overthrow of Assad. This idea simply unrealistic. Obama if will continue to follow a former course, can get the region in even bigger chaos. I do not consider that it is favorable to Americans to create this chaos. Probably, there are neoconservatives who consider correct policy on destabilization. But aggravation of crisis can strike across the USA as "Al-Qaeda" grown by Americans ** struck on September 11, 2001. Unfortunately, among those who is engaged now in Washington in the Middle East, sane people not so much. It is good, if them will hear.

"Joint venture": – In Europe everything is louder than a voice of those who accuses America of flow of migrants from the Middle East. Whether Europeans Washington can push to take more constructive position?

– Europeans understand that Americans involve them in the various conflicts. It concerns not only the Middle East, but also Ukraine. But it is difficult to Europe to defend the neutral position. It now – the small assistant in permission of the Syrian crisis. The Old World is so frightened of flow of migrants that all its efforts will be directed on the solution of this problem. To resolve the Syrian conflict it is possible only joint efforts of Russia and the USA.

– In Syria I perceive messages on the Russian planes as information "foam" behind which serious negotiations on formation of the international coalition disappear, – the head of the Research center «the Middle East – the Caucasus» Stanislav Tarasov considers. – At East economic forum Vladimir Putin told that participation in a coalition is premature. But there are certain nuances. After a meeting with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Syria in Moscow on June 29 Putin told that Russia supports idea of an anti-terrorist coalition where would enter Syria, Russia, Turkey and some other countries. There was an incident, after all the anti-terrorist coalition already exists, in it Turkey formally consists, but does not accept active participation. It turns out, what Putin offered a new coalition? Or a coalition in a coalition? Now our president explained that it is a question of coordination of actions. In March US Secretary of State John Kerri said that does not exclude establishment, let and private, contacts between Washington and official Damascus.

While it is possible to draw a conclusion that two directions of the solution of the Syrian crisis are designated. The first – within the Geneva discussions with the moderate opposition, the second – forming of the wide international front of fight against the international terrorism in a look of «The Islamic state».

Round these two ideas there are very thin and difficult negotiations. The message on the Russian planes – a frank throw which testifies to the bargaining. First of all, from Israel.

The matter is that also Iran made the plan on the Syrian settlement which is focused on support of a mode of Assad. For Tehran it is important also for demonstration of that, despite acceptance of the agreement by Washington according to the Iranian nuclear program, Iran will not go in a waterway of the USA in the questions concerning Syria, Iraq and Yemen. That is, there is a multilateral fight.

It is clear, that pressure upon Obama’s administration amplifies from republicans. The criticism of policy of the USA in the Middle East in the American press too sharply amplifies. Most likely, the perspective of the Middle East will be main in presidential election campaign. The white house wants to taxi somehow on «pure water», that is to develop success of the Iranian transaction by means of the solution of the Syrian problem.

Against direct dialogue of Washington and Moscow Turkey acts. She considers that Assad should be removed from participation in game. Israel is dissatisfied with the transaction of the USA with Iran and too settlement process in Syria tries to brake.

"Joint venture": – All agree to fight from YOKES, but cannot agree about means. How disputes will long proceed?

– Process of negotiations will be long. The USA want to force process, but at them hardly it will turn out. The matter is that the position of the states changes. Before the USA stored "monopoly" for use of YOKES in the region for the interests. Now not.

In principle, the USA could suppress YOKES by own efforts, but they do not want to lose the instrument of impact on a situation in the region. The coalition is necessary to them to build in the countries the plans. But each state plays own party. In the conditions of the general mistrust will come everything to general "denominator" very difficult.

Way out – dialogue between Moscow and Washington. And it is quite possible that the parties try to leave on that level of interaction which allowed to clean in due time the chemical weapon from Syria.

"Joint venture": – Americans can agree what Assad should remain in power?

– Quite can. If to agree with Assad’s leaving, there will be a full disorder of system of international law in the region. Because so any migrants in the Parisian cafe can call themselves «the government in exile», and modes in the countries to call "dictatorial". The West declared Assad the dictator, without any support on international law. Now the same West calls the dictator of Turkish prime minister Erdogan though it governs thanks to a parliamentary coalition. Today in Turkey press on opposition. Than Assad’s mode differs from Erdogan’s mode? If proceeding from these criteria we declare modes objectionable and to begin against them any fight, everything will go racing.

Change of heads of the states is possible. But it should pass legal methods, as result of internal processes. It is impossible to call someone dictators without grounds. On such logic dethroned Gaddafi in summary received disintegration of Libya. Syria – the multinational and multiconfessional state, it cannot remain in former borders if to clean Assad. Syria will repeat a way of disintegration of Libya, Iraq.

"Joint venture": – What "trumps" in negotiation process Russia has?

– At Americans the infrastructure which was in the Middle East allows to finish from YOKES within a month. But there will be cruel fights, and Americans do not want to receive coffins with the soldiers. That is, force of States is paralysed. And here "mind" does not suffice. In the region Great Britain had strong investigation, but in many respects lost potential. The USA have some skills of negotiation process, as the rate on power option initially became. Americans got used to create coalitions so that to dictate a condition to all allies, and in a present case so it will not turn out.

Now the USA cannot simply offer any distinct project for Syria. How it is possible to clean Assad moreover to exclude thus a power factor?

The USA should be found such partner who would help to make all work. Here Putin pulled out the chemical weapon from Syria. But why to us the achievements to put in luggage of successes of the American diplomacy? We suggest to look for consensus. Here also there is a serious bargaining which course we can guess only. It is necessary to consider that we cannot observe on a situation from outside. Syria is closer to us, than to the USA. We now try to defend on distant approaches.

* – «The Islamic state» the decision Supreme the vessels Russian Federation from December 29, 2014 is recognized by the terrorist organization, its activity in Rossi’s territory is forbidden.

** – "Al-Qaeda" the decision Supreme the vessels Russian Federation from February 14, 2003 is recognized by the terrorist organization, its activity in Rossi’s territory is forbidden.

Andrey Ivanov Andrey Ivanov