CHINA’S SPACE BUDGET

Estimating worldwide space budgets has always been problematical, for figures are complicated by currency rates, variable labor costs, commercial revenues, and just how inclusive they are of infrastructure, development costs, and military programs. China’s space budget is also complicated, as are others in command or former command economies, by the notional nature of some financial transfers, cross­industry subsidies, and the provision of important functions by the military (e. g. search and recovery operations). A particular consideration is that labor costs in China are low. As a result, formal financial estimates of the Chinese space budget have tended to be on the low side by international comparison.

The Chinese have rarely published global figures on space spending, but they have for individual projects. For example, the cost of project 921 was given as ¥18bn (about €1.5bn), of which ¥8bn comprised new facilities and ¥10bn the development of Shenzhou. Later, they quoted costs for an unmanned Shenzhou launch of ¥800m and manned of ¥lbn (€80m and €100m, respectively). The cost of Chang e up to 2012 was given as ¥2.3bn (€230m). The first time China volunteered the cost of its annual space budget was when a NASA administrator visited China in 2006 and he was given a figure of €1.4bn. This figure is on the low side and it is possible that it does not include either development costs or military missions. Western assessments early this century were in the range of €lbn-2bn a year, specifically €1.5bn (Futron), €1.59bn (America’s Aviation Week & Space Technology), €1.68bn (Britain’s Flight International) to between €1.5bn and €2bn (civil) or a total of €2.5bn including defense (Pirard). The most authoritative

1

United States

50,000*

2

Europe

7,211**

3

Japan

3,080

4

Russia

2,970

5

China

2,500

6

India

1,019

Source: ESD. European Space Directory, 2012. ESD, Paris (2012).

* NASA, €14,615m; Department of Defense, €21,538m; others, €13,846m. ** ESA and national programs.

comparisons are those made by Belgian writer Theo Pirard in the European Space Directory; these are detailed in Table 10.2.

Whilst these figures are helpful, the relative positions may be more meaningful. These figures show the United States as not only the largest space spender, but the largest by far. Europe comes in second, far behind, with Japan following even further in turn. The table places China as the fifth space spender in the world, behind Japan and Russia but well ahead of India. These figures, though, are only the direct spending figures by the state and do not include revenue. Two other analyses are available. First, Futron has assessed the economic value of the Chinese space program at€12bn annually – a figure which takes account of both those working in industry and its benefits to the economy. Second, in 2011, a domestic analysis was made, using a quite different assessment system, estimating the investment of the space program to be between ¥10bn and ¥20bn (€lbn to €2bn, in line with our earlier figures), giving a boost to the economy of between 0.034% and 0.103%, respectively, annually – quite small in the context of an economy of €4,300bn [1]. Overall, there is much more work to be done in assessing the level of space spending in an internationally comparable, transparent manner. China’s space budget may be relatively low, but it is stable, which permits long-term planning, and has many built – in economies to keep costs down. It is economical, for, as the Shenzhou and Chang e programs exemplified, missions are spaced well apart, each manned mission marking a step forward. Existing spacecraft are adapted for a broad range of new purposes, like the DFH-3 comsat for Moon probes. “Bus” designs are used for many different types of missions. Rockets follow a common design, the Long March 3 and 4 being based on the Long March 2. The introduction of small satellites and micro-satellites means lower launch costs. All these features keep costs down.

There are no absolutely clear figures available for the numbers of people working in the Chinese space program. The best Western estimates give a figure of 200,000 people directly involved in the space industry, but this does not include sub­contracting companies, which could possibly double this number. Of these, 100,000 are technical workers, drawn from light industry, the army’s technical ranks, and the polytechnics. About 10,000 are graduate research engineers working in 460 institutes leading or connected to the space program. The Chinese space program has been able to choose the top graduates coming out of engineering schools and has been able to attract the country’s most talented scientists.

Perhaps the most striking feature of the workforce is not its number, but its age. When 38-year-old Yang Liwei circled the Earth in 2003, many of the people who designed his spaceship and controlled his mission were younger than him. Eighty percent of the engineers were under 40 and some were even under 30. Shenzhou program designer Wang Yongzhi once pointed to the emergence of a large group of young specialists as the key to a successful long-term program. The youth of the program is even more evident if we look at the mission control center for the manned space program. Almost all those recruited there were under 30 on their arrival and their average age is 27. Although their pay was low, about €2,000 a year – a fraction of what they could have received in the private sector – working there was coveted and prestigious, with onward career opportunities in science, technology, and the military. Controllers were encouraged to take master’s courses in Tsinghua University and Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics and to study abroad in Britain, France, and the United States. In 20-30 years’ time, they will be at the peak of their careers, with a long experience behind them. Chinese delegates to international space events stand out for their youth.