Use of Spadeadam for Space Firings

The document below is the full text of the note written by Sir Steuart Mitchell, CGWL, to the Minister of Aviation, Peter Thorneycroft, concerning the possibility of using Spadeadam to launch Blue Streak.

The following are hastily prepared views on the above.

Technically

Spadeadam certainly would be feasible, and in nearly every way technically would be better than anywhere else.

2. Costwise. (Capitol plus operating) Spadeadam would be as cheap as Woomera, and cheaper than anywhere else.

3. Method

Trajectory about north 35 east.

Overflies Kelso. Crosses coast ever Eyemouth.

Passes 25 miles east of Aberdeen, and 100 miles west of the Norwegian coast.

Down range station, very well placed, would be in Spitsbergen (Norway, open all year round). Alternative would be at Tromso, which is possible but not so well placed.

First stage impact 200 miles off Norwegian coast abreast Namsos. (This is west of the Narvik – North Sea ore traffic lane).

Second stage impact on the polar ice cap.

4. Risks

Quick and Rough estimates are:-

1. The chance of having to cut down the missile on to UK territory beyond the Spadeadam Range Area is approximately:-

/% to 2% during the development period.

2. The chance of a missile having to be cut down and then landing in a “populated area” is approximately :-

1/50% to 1/5% during the development period

3. The chance of killing a person is approximately 1 in 10,000 per round fired in the development phase.

4. The risk to Norwegian territory is negligible.

5. The risk to shipping, is negligible.

5. Nature of the Risk

The cut-down risk is numerically greatest within the first mile. The Spadeadam Range area extends to just over a mile from the launch.

A missile cut down within five miles would have a considerable fire risk from fuel and oxidant. Outside five miles a cut-down missile is primarily a fragment risk not a fuel oxidant risk.

6. Comparison with Aircraft Risks

Aircraft crashes over the last 5 years in the UK average about 90 per annum. The probable total damage to lives and property of persons on the ground per annum from firings from Spadeadam is estimated to be about 1/10 of that from aircraft crashes in the UK per annum.

One Boeing 707 crashing near take off from London airport with full tanks and 128 passengers, or two Boeings colliding over London, would be far more serious than any conceivable accident with a space launcher.

7. Black Knight experience

None of the total of eleven firings so far done with Black Knight would have landed in UK territory if they had been fired from Spadeadam.

8. Conclusion

Spadeadam is technically both feasible and attractive. From the cost point of view, it is approximately the same as Woomera, and is much cheaper than any alternative.

It must be accepted, however, that some cut-downs on to UK territory would inevitably occur if we fire from Spadeadam. The chance of serious damage to life and property from such cut-downs are numerically small.

The risk of damage to foreign countries, or to shipping, is negligible.

The crucial point is the political acceptability of the risk in the UK Hitherto this has been regarded as unacceptable, and it would be no less now than when previously considered. My advice is that the risk is appreciable and should not be accepted.

S. S.C. M. C. G.W. L. 27th October 1961

[Taken from TNA: PRO AVIA 66/7]