The closed sky

The closed sky

The government of Ukraine forbade the Russian airlines, including the largest (to "Aeroflot" and "Transaero") to carry out flights in the country airports, and also to make through them transit flights of aircrafts which «contain the military-oriented goods, a dual purpose or the Russian military manpower». Coming into effect of this ban threatens to turn back big troubles not only for the Russian carriers, but also for the Ukraine. With which, found out "Lenta.Ra".

On September 16 Kiev published sanktsionny lists where nearly 400 individuals and about 100 organizations were included. In the list 21 Russian airlines, in particular "Aeroflot", "Transaero", "Ural Airlines", "Yamal", "Orenburg Airlines", "VIM Airlines", "Gazpromavia", "Siberia" and others appear Red Wings.

According to the message of the Ukrainian State aviaservice, got under action of sanctions the Russian air carriers cannot fly to Ukraine since October 25, 2015. And at first it was a question only of transit, point on the airports added later. «There is nothing to do to the Russian planes with the Russian tricolours at the Ukrainian airports», – the Ukrainian prime minister Arseny Yatsenyuk declared on September 25.

On September 28 the State aviaservice of Ukraine reported that notified the Russian airlines on the restrictive measures entered against them. In particular, "Aeroflot" confirmed officially obtaining the notice from the Ukrainian authorities and stopped sale of tickets to the cities of Ukraine since October 25. Similar notices from the aviation authorities of Ukraine about a ban of flights since the beginning of action of the winter schedule received also other largest Russian airlines – "Transaero" (it is sanified by "Aeroflot") «, the Globe» (enters into S7 group), "Russia" (enters into Aeroflot group) «, Ural Airlines».

The closed sky
Photo: Mikhail Razuvaev / "Kommersant"

The press secretary of the Russian president Dmitry Peskov called a ban on flights of domestic planes in the Ukrainian airports the next act of madness. One cannot say that the decision of the Ukrainian government appeared for Moscow absolutely a bolt from the blue. However against recent concessions of Russia in a gas question the idea to close the sky for the Russian carriers speaks about intention of the Ukrainian government and further to complicate the relations between two countries – let even to the detriment of own interests.

In the Russian Ministry of Transport promised to answer the decision of the Ukrainian authorities. As the head of Ministry of Transport Maxim Sokolov in interview to TV channel «Russia 1» declared, two Ukrainian airlines also can be not allowed to flights on the territory of Russia. He called a ban of Ukraine on flights of the Russian companies by a shot in a foot. According to the minister, such measures the Ukrainian authorities exhaust the citizens in transport isolation in the Europe. In eight months 2015 the Russian and Ukrainian airlines transported 800 thousand passengers, and about 70 percent from them are citizens of Ukraine, the head of transport department reminded. «We understand that this step will actually lead to a stop of air traffic between the countries. (…) but I will emphasize that in the developed situation to this step the Russian side is compelled by actions of the Ukrainian authorities», – the official noted.

Later, on September 28, the prime minister of Russia Dmitry Medvedev charged to Ministry of Transport to consider the problem introductions of reciprocal restrictive measures concerning the Ukrainian airlines.

The Ukrainian carriers also are afraid of countermeasures, though recognize them in the current circumstances quite logical. As told the press secretary of the largest airline of the country «International airlines of Ukraine» of Evgeny Satskaya, expectation at a carrier the most pessimistic: «It is clear that we expect predictable, absolutely logical mirror measures from the Russian Federation. It is clear that MAU as the largest airline – in a zone of the sharpest risk».

The closed sky
Photo: Gleb Garanich/Reuters Expensive ban

According to experts, the basis for fears at the Ukrainian carriers the very serious. Russia can forbid the Ukrainian airlines flights on the territory and block all transit routes. Both ban can be entered at the same time, but, probably, at first to the Ukrainian airlines will forbid flights in the Russian Federation, the partner of the company «Business waterway» Sergey Varlamov considers.

That fact that cancellation of an aircraft service will be reflected in the Ukrainian economy enduring the most serious for the last 25 years crisis, doubts does not cause. According to Biletix, summer of 2015, despite cooling of the relations between the countries, the volume of passenger air transportation to Ukraine increased by 22 percent in comparison with the similar period of last year. The key directions of air flights from Russia there is Kiev, Odessa, Lviv. Besides "Aeroflot" and "Transaero" in the five of the largest airlines serving the Russian-Ukrainian direction, S7, "Utair" and «The international airlines of Ukraine» enter.

According to the Kommersant newspaper, the Russian companies fly to Kiev from 14 to 35 times a week. At the main airport of the country Borispol of transportation between Kiev and Moscow are ten percent of all passenger traffic. With other Kiev airport – Zhulyana – the situation is even more difficult: by estimation, it will lose to an income third. As the head of board of directors of the airport Denis Kostrzhevsky told to the edition, arriving three times a day, "Transaero" paid to the airport about 7-7,5 million hryvnias a month. It was thus planned to increase number of flights to five. Because of sanctions the enterprise will receive less this money, and the budget of Kiev will lose 2,5 million hryvnias of taxes monthly. As a whole, as counted up "Kommersant", at introduction of a ban and symmetric Russian measures real and indirect loss of the airports of Kiev, Odessa and Lviv will exceed 10 million dollars per day. Thus, according to the former deputy minister of infrastructure of Ukraine Alexander Kava, annual losses of the state enterprise of service of air traffic of Ukraine "Ukraerorukh" because of a ban of the Russian transit will reach 150 million dollars.

As to the Russian companies, their life also will become complicated, if the ban of the Ukrainian authorities really comes into force at the end of October. Carriers should reconsider the routes which are going as transit goods through air space, supervised by Ukraine. It can lead to cancellation of flights on a number of the directions because of the compelled lengthening of a way: flight costs additional resources – fuel and time, the editor-in-chief of the magazine «Flight line» Roman Zakharov notes, adding that in that case under the threat there can be, for example, flights to Kishinev and Bulgaria. Flights through air space of Ukraine in Ukrainian and transit carriers, and also flights of the Russian airlines which have not been mentioned by sanctions, including specializing on charter flights can become an exit, according to the expert.

Two-edged sword

It is necessary to tell that the unilateral or mutual ban on the flights, entered by the countries, – idea not new and is used from time to time as the tool of political and economic pressure. In certain cases business nevertheless is limited to threats in words as at modern intensity of an aircraft service any ban by all means appears a two-edged sword, and in the history of such examples there is a lot of.

The closed sky
Photo: Andrey of Iglov / RIA Novosti news agency

«It is enough to remember conditions in which there was an aircraft in the divided post-war Germany: up to country association air carriers of Germany and GDR could not cross without special permission air border between the countries therefore between them there was no regular air traffic. And flights in air space were actually forbidden: east German "Interflyug", for example, flew about the territory of Germany through neighboring countries», – Roman Zakharov tells.

After incident with South Korean "Boeing-747" in 1983 the Federal Aviation Administration of the USA closed airline R-20 for civil aviation. In fact it meant aircraft service blockade with the USSR. Within two months "Aeroflot" flights were cancelled, the air space between the USA and the USSR was blocked. However under the pressure of the American airlines which have lost one of the shortest routes between Alaska and East Asia, the message opened already on October 2.

At the beginning of the 2000th the conflict to Spain for the right to carry out charter transportations to this country inflamed. Using point in the bilateral agreement about air traffic, Russia refused to the Spanish airlines the right of commission of charter flights. Countermeasures of Spain compelled it to reconsider this position.

However sometimes to the countries entering a ban, it was possible to reach the purposes. So, autumn of 2004 Russia closed air space for Georgia because of debt of the Georgian airlines for aeronavigation service in the Russian air space – then it made 3,6 million dollars. But the problem was quickly resolved. After Russia declared intention to impose a ban on flights of the Georgian planes over the territory, the Georgian party recognized a duty and assumed obligations on its repayment.

The freshest example – August, 2014. Sanktsionny war between the West and Russia already was in the heat when the official representative of European Commission in Germany Richard Kyunel in interview to the Deutsche Welle edition declared that the European Union is ready to forbid to fly by to planes of the Russian airlines over Europe. In reply to it prime minister Dmitry Medvedev threatened to forbid to foreign airlines to fly over Siberia (it was a question of non-stop flights from Europe to South East Asia). Experts noted that the ban to fly over Siberia would result some European air carriers in inevitable bankruptcy. On the other hand, the Russian carriers would suffer not less – even if not to take into consideration a royalty which sum, by different estimates, makes about 300 million dollars a year. Plus reputation damage: the state would show itself the unreliable partner who puts political decisions above a professional approach.

The present case is quite entered in history of a similar ban, after all and now civil aviation becomes the hostage of the political decisions which economic consequences hardly comprehensively and are in detail counted.

Inessa Papernaya, Tatyana Romanov