Lukashenko: we have no Russian planes. Moscow: will be!

Lukashenko: we have no Russian planes. Moscow: will be!

Moscow poured in a tar spoon in Alexander Lukashenko’s election campaign, having brought up a question of air base placement in Belarus. The offer to Vladimir Putin to sign with Minsk the agreement in this respect discussed on September 2 the Russian government.

In the message of its press service it is noted that «signing of the agreement will promote the organization of joint protection of external border of the Union State in air space and to creation of Uniform regional system of antiaircraft defense of the Russian Federation and Republic of Belarus».

Discomfortable subject

The subject of foreign air base – an Achilles’ heel in the piarovsky plan sounds beautifully, but for the Belarusian president. On the threats connected with this project political opponents and play the people as the sociology shows, does not clap to prospect of such militarization.

At last, to Minsk especially inopportunely to get into confrontation between Moscow and the West (and the base clearly to whom threatens) right now when normalization only just was outlined in the relations with the European Union and the USA.

Meeting on August 4 "Evroradio’s" journalists, TUT.by and radio "Freedom", Lukashenko in every possible way tried to shade a discomfortable question for it the Russian military presence at the country. A pier if there is a couple of bases, they "absolutely peace" and, in particular, do not threaten Ukraine.

Really, RLS under Gantsevichami and point of communication of Naval Forces of Russia about Vileyka, strictly speaking, even are not registered on bases – simply military facilities. But here the assumed regiment of the Russian fighters here is already serious striking power which strains both NATO officials, and Ukrainians.

About first signs – a link of Russian Su-27 on duty on air base in Baranovichi – Lukashenko in that interview expressed cunning: «I do not know, they now bear watch or not. In my opinion, they decreased today. Russian we here have no planes».

Now here Moscow submitted a loud remark: no – so will be.

Before the air base subject some time was muffled. Analysts assumed that to the Belarusian head give the chance to save in this plan the face before presidential election appointed to October 11.

Moscow shakes a fist at NATO officials

Why now Moscow took out a question to the public sphere and in general how it is possible to assume, forces air base placement?

«I think, it is connected not with the Belarusian situation, and with strain of relations between Russia and NATO», – the Belarusian observer foreign affairs specialist Andrey Fedorov declared.

In his opinion, rhetoric about strengthening of air boundaries of the Union State – «this cover». Actually the Kremlin shows to North Atlantic alliance: to us to eat than answer.

Thus, if to judge according to available information it is unlikely that to the Belarusian party in the course of agreement preparation especially consulted, and it looks "a little inconsiderately", Fedorov notes.

Meanwhile military analyst Alexander Alesin is sure that the Belarusian experts are included in work on the agreement, simply Minsk is not interested it to advertize, as «Lukashenko has elections on a nose». Moscow public discussion of the agreement «shows Lukashenko that degree of his independence is limited».

Alesin also paid attention to news from the western sources: NATO opens six new staffs in the states of Eastern Europe – Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Estonia. So, Alesin believes, the Russian management, making active a question of air base in Belarus, sends to members of North Atlantic alliance a signal: we too will aim you.

Not casually for air base eventually chose Bobruisk where «in Soviet period heavy bombers and in general (there) a lot of place» were based. As a result there can place more aviation equipment, and more terrible, than it was supposed initially, Alesin speaks. As a whole, in his opinion, Moscow and Minsk conduct old game on a formula «privileges and subsidies in exchange for strategic concessions».

To Minsk not to get out

Privileges and subsidies are necessary today to the Belarusian management more than ever. Export – a source of life-giving currency – dries up. The currency revenue of the country for January – July made less than 20 billion dollars, having decreased almost on a quarter in comparison with an indicator for the similar period of last year.

«In an air base question a little that depends on the management of Belarus», – the Belarusian political analyst Roman Yakovlevsky declared. He considers that Minsk appeared not only in economic, but «in general in total dependence» from the Kremlin. There is no confidence that the Belarusian army is rather loyal and efficient to resist to possible invasion from the East.

For the subject of air base thrown by Moscow it is predictable internal political opponents of the authorities grasped. And not only BNF Party for which it is the old fad, but also Lukashenko’s probable competitor on elections Tatyana Korotkevich.

«Such bases will make Belarus a target and are threat for our national security. Considering the conflict in Ukraine, irresponsibly to increase arms of other country in our territory and as a whole in the region as this gun can shoot at any time», – declared Korotkevich.

For the pretender whom other oppositionists convict of conformism, rigidly criticize for a bezzubost of slogans, the subject of air base is very convenient in respect of public relations. Here to you and a stone in a kitchen garden of the incumbent president, and at the same time here not an appeal to revolt, and just care of stability, game on fear of the inhabitant before war (on what, actually, and the authorities play).

It is clear that komariny stings of opponents will not prevent Lukashenko to prolong the powers for five years. After elections from placement of the Russian air base to it, on amicable forecasts of analysts not to leave.

The Belarusian commander-in-chief certainly would prefer to receive simply from Russia of one and a half-two ten modern planes. And the suffice pilots.

But закавыка that Moscow patrol of air borders of the Union State worries at all only. The sword against the West here is necessary to Moscow. And it is simpler to keep a tight rein on the whimsical ally, when on his earth there are your armies.

Alexander Klaskovsky