Nebatkina base

Alexander Lukashenko gave a peculiar gift to birthday of the Vladimir Putin’s friend, having called hearings conversations on possible creation in Belarus the Russian military and air base.

Lukashenko’s reaction obviously became surprise for the Kremlin as Putin Dmitry Peskov’s press secretary was not with the answer and this with the fact that history with base – any not hearings and not conversations. This concrete assignment which Putin in an official order gave to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defence of Russia. Hardly this message of the press service of the president of Russia could pass by Peskov. As, however, and by Lukashenko.

That the Belarusian party did not react in any way to the Russian offer, already was a certain symptom. However passed in Minsk past Sunday the national descent of the Belarusian opposition on which protested against possible emergence of base, forced Lukashenko to express absolutely specifically. It, certainly, does not polemize with Putin, and habitually brands oppositionists dismissing ridiculous hearings. However the reaction essence from it does not change.

Observers already began to say that Lukashenko, learned to try to get to itself preference for any Russian whim, and goes this time on increase of rates. Also that a base question – simply a question of money: for its emergence it will be well necessary to pay and to the most Belarusian president, and in the budget of the neighboring country. However base – not the gas transport system. If Lukashenko allows its emergence on the Belarusian earth, will make the most serious mistake in the long-term career. And business at all in the sovereignty of Belarus and in the future of this country – hardly Lukashenko thinks of something such. Matter in Lukashenko’s political future. After all such base – considering scope of the Russian plans and need of basing of the land parts serving aircraft, – the most real occupational contingent. Behind examples far it is not necessary to go: the Russian naval base which has remained in the Ukrainian territory played a key role annexations of the Crimea, and the Russian side specially emphasized that the number of the military personnel occupied in operation on capture of another’s territory, did not exceed designated in the Russian-Ukrainian agreements. And than there this military personnel is engaged – in maneuvers or power change, – in one contract is not designated. So than the Russian pilots are worse than the Russian seamen?

But Lukashenko can refuse placement of base not only for the reasons of elementary self-preservation. For it idea of emergence in the territory of Belarus of the limited contingent of the Russian military personnel – the proof of that economic ways to keep the neighboring country in the orbit Vladimir Putin any more in a condition. And, thus, it tries to be insured from a possible turn of Belarus towards the West by means of military force. But why it should be to interestingly Belarusian president?

For two decades Alexander Lukashenko used Russia for consolidation of own power, changing the Russian credits and subsidies for ringing slogans about a Slavic brotherhood, allied integration, opposition to the West and other nonsenses. Yes, of course, in recent years it had to renounce the sovereignty, but not so that if something happens it was impossible to win back back. If Putin cannot and contain further the Belarusian mode, it is not necessary to Lukashenko together with Russia. Whether though, Alexander Grigoryevich achieves mitigation of sanctions and recognition of the Belarusian elections? Whether though, it is photographed with Obama? He with chagrin notices, how at a bear who brought to it so many label and other delicacies, teeth drops out and claws weaken. Also reflects on new sponsors.

The only thing that can stop Lukashenko in his careful otpolzaniye from Russia, is the Russian army. Internal problems will not be – even the Belarusian opposition will begin to clap to a gap with the strategic partner, and the pro-Russian organizations in Belarus are not present and was never. Neighbors – Lithuania, Poland, and now and Ukraine – only will breathe sigh of relief when Belarus will refuse the role of the Russian satellite. Means, there is a base. It also is the most important danger.

Certainly, Lukashenko will not begin to refuse rigidly to Putin. It will remind still that its country is ready to remain the faithful ally of Russia, "outpost" in NATO opposition. He even asks from Putin of "some arms" to resist even more effectively. But finally these arms – if they even will arrive on balance of the Belarusian army – of course, will be used not for NATO intimidation as the alliance does not threaten the Belarusian sovereignty.

They will be used against Russia.

Vitaly Portnikov