COST OVERRUNS

Not surprisingly by today’s standards, the original cost estimates for the X-15 and the XLR99 had been hopelessly optimistic. The first Air Force estimate for development and two airplanes totaled only $12,200,000. By the time the Air Force issued the letter contracts, the estimates stood at $38,742,500 for the airframe, $9,961,000 for the engine, and $1,360,000 for the High Range.

By the time the government and North American signed the final contract, the total cost had already risen to $40,263,709 plus $2,617,075 in fee. This had increased to $64,021,146 by the beginning of 1959. During the next six months, the estimates increased first to $67,540,178, then to $68,657,644, and by 1 June to $74,500,000-almost double the letter contract amount. The three airframes ended up costing $23.5 million; the rest represented research and development expenses.-1158!

The engine was worse. In 1955 the Air Force estimated the engine costs would ultimately be about $6,000,000. The letter contract was for $9,961,000, and by the time the Air Force and Reaction Motors signed the final engine contract this had risen to $10,160,030, plus an additional $614,000 fee. At the end of FY58, the amount was over $38,000,000, and FY59 brought the total to $59,323,000. The cost for FY60 alone was $9,050,000. As of June 1959, the engine costs were $68,373,000-over five times the 1955 estimate for the entire program and almost a sevenfold increase over the initial Reaction Motors contract value. Each of the 10 "production" engines cost just over $1 million.-1159!

While it was not nearly as bad as the engine, the stable platform ran significantly over budget as well. The original contract price was $1,213,518 plus an $85,000 fee. By May 1958, the cost had increased to $2,498,518 and a year later was at $3,234,188 plus $119,888 in fee. The auxiliary power units cost $2.7 million, the ball nose another $600,000, the MH-96 adaptive control system $2.3 million, and the David Clark full-pressure suits more than $150,000.-160

During the first five years of development, the government spent $121.5 million on the X-15 program, not including laboratory and wind-tunnel testing at Wright Field, the Arnold Engineering Development Center, NADC Johnsville, and the various NACA/NASA laboratories. The funding was broken down as follows: Ї161-

Together with approximately $11,500,000 for the High Range, it was obvious that the cost of the X-15 project was going to exceed $150,000,000 before the flight program got underway. When the original development and manufacturing contracts were closed out in FY63 (replaced by sustaining engineering and support contracts), the total came to $162.8 million. By the time it was all over in 1968, the total would almost double when all operational costs and modifications were included. Most published comparisons use the final program cost of approximately $300 million, but this is an unfair comparison to the original $12.2 million because the scope was extremely different.116^