The Russian blow on YOKES hallooed in Azerbaijan

Syria riveted again attention of the world on itself. Analysts are sure: there it is solved not only a question «Islamic state», but also all geopolitical situation in the Middle East taking into account opposition of the Russian and western interests.

The events watch and in Azerbaijan. For the northern neighbor decided what to adhere to an observant position in the Syrian crisis is fraught with unpredictable consequences.

The decision is accepted – blow!

In the morning on September 30 the Federation Council allowed to use military and air forces in Syria. For this decision senators voted unanimously.

According to Chief of Presidential Administration Sergey Ivanov, Russia will use only military and air forces for fight against fighters of «The Islamic state». Speech does not go about land operation.

Earlier the press secretary of the president of Russia Dmitry Peskov, making comments on Federation Council permission, could not tell, when airstrikes of the Russian Air Force on positions of YOKES will begin, having explained it to that information such is "specific".

But in the evening of CNN, ccылаясь on the representative of the American authorities, reported that the Russian military and air forces put the first airstrike in Syria. Blow, according to the interlocutor of TV channel, put near to the city of Homs.

To Syria through Azerbaijan or How to rescue Assad?

It became known in the evening that the Russian bombers fly to Syria through Azerbaijan. The way of flight of a link passed on air space of Azerbaijan, then through the Caspian Sea, Iran and Iraq.

Pilots meaningly chose a route bypassing ways on which passes active movement of passenger planes.

Following over Iraq, the Russian planes were in a radio silence mode, and having got to air space of Syria, again renewed communication between crews

Meanwhile it became known that Russia addressed to Washington with an appeal to clean planes of the U.S. Air Force from the Syrian air space.

«The Russian official in Baghdad informed this morning embassy staff of the USA that military planes of Russia will begin departures against YOKES over Syria today.

He also demanded, that planes of the USA avoided air space of Syria during these departures», – the official representative of the Pentagon declared RIA Novosti news agency.

Analysts in turn ask a question – whether it is possible to change still something for Assad the Russian intervention? There are serious doubts in this respect.

«Bashar Assad as the head of state is doomed. But it is doomed not only it – Syria as the state is doomed.

The Syrian army far not that that was even a year ago, its power and motivation thaw in the face of.

And the best that Assad’s allies can make at the last minute, – to provide evacuation: him, members of his family and, probably, the immediate environment.

But to provide physical safety or Assad Rossiya’s evacuation could and without direct military intervention. Means, the purpose – not Assad’s rescue and especially not rescue of Syria», – the analyst, the doctoral candidate of Institute of political sciences of Otto Zur at Free university of Berlin Heydar Mirza considers.

Big Middle East

At present set of all conflicts separately occurring still in the Middle East is transformed to Big Middle Eastern war.

As far as it was necessary for Russia to interfere with it in that form in which it occurred, – opened and declared – in conditions when «The Islamic state» does not represent sharp and direct threat to borders of Russia, and intervention is unequivocally connected with a number of serious risks for Moscow?

Even adjusted for that YOKES poses threat if not safety of the Russian borders, to interests of Moscow in the Middle East, the Kremlin quite could provide Assad with groups of "volunteers" from among former or formally anywhere not registered military personnel of special forces of VS Russian Federation.

The benefit experience of such actions is available for the Russian side.

«Other way – official campaign, blows of the Air Force, requests for flight through air spaces of the adjacent countries was chosen.

Whether however there are enough the forces thrown by the Russian command to Syria, for implementation of tasks formally put before them, i.e. fight from YOKES? There is obviously not enough.

In land operations against YOKES the Russian military personnel will not accept too participation, as well as others formally interested in destruction of YOKES of the party (except Iran, and that with great reserve). Respectively, operations of the Russian Air Force against YOKES – only external cover, an occasion the employee of a legitimatsiya of presence», – continued Heydar Mirza.

Why Baku does not interfere with war against «the Islamic state»

The closest neighbors of Baku – Ankara and Moscow – already joined fight against YOKES.

Indirectly and Baku participates long ago in campaign against dzhikhadist, though not in the form of direct military intervention.

Judging by the maintenance of news lines, the last half a year the relevant departments of the country carry out necessary actions, arrests of people connected with cells of «The Islamic state», including those who worked over a transportation of citizens of Azerbaijan to Syria and Iraq for participation in operations took place.

«As to direct military intervention – I do not think that Baku will make such decision. It is excluded. It not Kosovo, and at all Afghanistan or Iraq, here everything is more serious», – Heydar Mirza considers.

It not their war

There is an opinion that Moscow thus exchanges the participation in operations against YOKES for West concessions in Ukraine, for example, removal of sanctions.

Such explanation could be logical if the Russian command really throws the powerful group to Syria, capable a long time to conduct operations on a battlefield remote from the Russian borders.

It as you understand, not one, and at all two thousand soldiers. But we already said that number and character of armies thrown to Syria say that a task – is exact not a victory over YOKES.

Besides, attempt of Moscow to achieve concessions on the Ukrainian direction by means of military intervention in Big Middle Eastern war actually would mean recognition of what to achieve the purposes put in Ukraine other means it was not possible – and to solve a question in the east of Ukraine, the Russian soldiers should perish now not only in Ukraine, but also in Syria.

The political expert, the director general of Novosti-Azerbaydzhan news agency Vugar Halilov noticed that discussion of a question of the Russian bombings of YOKES becomes outdated every hour.

«The western press already pedals other trend: Russia bombs positions of the Syrian opposition. And the Syrian opposition is presented by the West as democratic. But this slyness. From where in the Middle East to undertake democratic opposition?» – the expert inquires.

According to him, if the western propaganda machine does not dissemble, it would be fair to say that after imaginary bombings by the western coalition of radical Islamists and growth of a zone of their influence Moscow decided that it is better to solve a problem at a stage of its maturing and on a decent distance from the borders.

The interlocutor КАВПОЛИТа considers that Russia applies the forces to prevent emergence of the centers of destabilization at the southern boundaries and to show the force to the West.

«It is obvious not Russia of a Yeltsin sample. Besides, Moscow protects also the economic interests.

The economic background of the Syrian problem and the requirement reason the West of resignation of president Assad in providing transportation of Qatar gas to ports of the Mediterranean Sea. And it can undermine positions of all gas exporters of the countries of Eurasia.

So, Russia now protects the and their interests. In Syria схлестнулись interests of the West and Russia. Other adjacent countries can take a non-interference position in this situation. It not their war», – was summarized by it.

To death of the Russian military personnel in Ukraine the Russian society is not easy, but got used. Syria – other case.

And much more weighty reasons to be got involved in new war, rather than permission of old war are necessary to the Kremlin.

Nevertheless it does not exclude the indirect, mediated influence of everything described on a situation in Ukraine.

The world loses Syria, and Russia the base

Noted questions against a wide context of the events in the region can indicate that Moscow decided to make a course calculated on «post-асадовский» the period.

Such operations never pursue the unique aim – risks are too great.

First of all Moscow will try to stake out thus for itself the base in east Mediterranean.

And, most likely, the sight is taken on something bigger, rather than simple point of material support of the Navy.

? «One presence of several tens Russian warplanes already speaks for itself.

And if thrown by Russian to Syria of human and technical resources it is not enough for drawing of defeat of YOKES, it is quite enough of them for creation and safety of the Russian military base.

But this base is important not in itself, or not for the sake of the Kremlin prestige. It is necessary to understand that there was a section of Syria, and, having been unable prevent it, the Kremlin decided to join it», – Heydar Mirza noticed.

Risks for Youzhny Kavkaza

In August of analytics carried to new risks for Youzhny Kavkaza’s countries possibility of escalation of violence in a zone of the Karabakh conflict and on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border outside of «the contact line», strengthening of the euroatlantic aspirations of Georgia, strengthening of positions of «The Islamic state» in the Middle East and attempts of export of radical Islamic moods and terrorist methods to the Caucasus.

Under pressure there is also a macroeconomic stability of the countries of the region: appreciable devaluation of their currencies occurs against decrease in volume of money transfers from abroad and stagnation in the sphere of investments.

In each of it is international the recognized countries there are social and internal political problems: mass protests and the constitutional reform which has begun in the summer in Armenia, activization against a difficult economic situation oppositional «Uniform national movement» in Georgia and not system Islamic opposition in Azerbaijan, uncertainty of the political future of Turkey and Iran.

Again the old headache – Syria reminded of itself. Now all looks are directed exactly there.

Vugar Gasanov