Abrupt dive

"Transaero" leaves together with cheap tickets

One of the largest Russian airlines appeared on the verge of bankruptcy. While hardly someone can tell with confidence that will be with her employees, fleet, a brand and, at last, passengers. One is obvious: the era of a price dumping in the Russian aviation market leaves in the past, it will be possible to forget about cheap flights soon. Besides, thousands tourists which have bought tickets of "Transaero" as a part of tourist’s packages became hostages of a difficult situation.

Who was not in time, that … the bankrupt

"Transaero" which services in January-August, 2015 9,3 million passengers used, – on the verge of bankruptcy because of decline in demand for transportations and high debt loading (the general duty – about 250 billion rubles, including leasing payments and about 80 billions bank credits). It was initially supposed that for rescue of airline of 75 percent plus one action will be transferred to "Aeroflot" for the symbolical sum of one ruble. But owners of papers were not in time, as was planned, to consolidate this package within one legal entity till the end of September (60 percent managed to be collected to the founder of the company Alexander Pleshakov, another 13 percent were on balance of affiliated "Transaero Finance").

As a result of October 1 at meeting at the prime minister of Russia Dmitry Medvedev the decision on start of procedure of bankruptcy of "Transaero" was made. In the evening of the same day "Aeroflot" confirmed officially that refuses the offer on purchase of the 75 percent block of shares of "Transaero". The Rosaviation suspended sale of its tickets. One day later Alfa Bank and Sberbank reported about intention to address with claims about bankruptcy of "Transaero".

Thus the minister of transport of Russia Maxim Sokolov emphasized that speech about revocation of license of "Transaero" does not go yet, the company continues to fly, and coordination of its operating activities is carried out by "Aeroflot" (since September 7 the deputy head of "Aeroflot" Dmitry Saprykin is appointed the managing director). At "Aeroflot" the coordination staff was created, and at Rosaviation – a staff on the situation monitoring, carrying out interaction with the aviaauthorities of the foreign states. Falcons also promised that the passengers who have bought tickets of "Transaero", will be transported by the company, and in case of need Aeroflot group airlines – "Russia", "Donavia", "Orenburg Airlines" and others. Besides, to it are already ready to be connected and other carriers – "Siberia", "Utair", "Ural Airlines", "Taimyr".

Photo: Leonid Faerberg/Transport Photo Images/Global Look

But with idea to make bankrupt "Transaero" agreed not all. The bank «International financial club» (IFC) opposed this option, having called it the most adverse taking into account scales of business of a carrier. It was offered to transfer instead of bankruptcy in management to creditor banks of 75 percent plus one action of airline. In the statement of IFC it was emphasized that bankruptcy «will lead to deterioration of air transportation in the country, and also will cause a huge damage of capitalization of all domestic banking system». In turn, the head of VEB Vladimir Dmitriev called bankruptcy only one of considered scenarios.

Flew up above the market

The former shareholder and the general director of "Transaero" Olga Pleshakov nowadays heading board of directors, on October 2 declared readiness of the company to transfer to a bank consortium all consolidated stock of a carrier (earlier she presented the actions to spouse Alexander Pleshakov). She also paid attention that the financial condition of "Transaero" promptly worsens: since the beginning of September the revenue of airline fell more than six times, the stock value on MICEX decreased three times.

The reason of all troubles for the second for volume of transportations of the Russian airline – aggressive expansion at the expense of fleet expansion, aspiration to expand a market share, considers the general director of the consulting company Infomost Boris Rybak. «From many million passengers which are transported by "Transaero", a part – artificially involved clients. The matter is that the airline offered the tariffs being beyond profitability. Partly it also created its duty and operational losses were considerable», – he notes. The general director of Air Charter Service Azat Mulgimov points to one factor: recession of regular (seasonal) charter transportations in connection with deterioration of a financial position of the population. «Demand on the traditional tourist directions fell, and to be reconstructed on new or on domestic market the company was not in time», – he considers.

Photo: Leonid Faerberg/Transport Photo Images/Global Look

The air fleet of "Transaero" (109 planes, the most part is acquired in leasing), according to the Fisherman, for the market is superfluous, and «than quicker they will return to owners or will be put on a trick – subjects better». «Superfluous capacities in the market are bad for the market. And unfairly cheap tickets are bad for passengers, as well as for airlines. Buying service in the price which is not corresponding to economic realities, you risk that it will not be rendered», – the Fisherman explains. The clients of airline using its services because of cheap tickets, in his opinion, will partially leave on other means of transport, (for example, railway), partially – to a loukoster "Victory". Other passenger traffics will be distributed between the Russian airlines in proportion to market shares.

The fisherman believes that more than 11 thousand employees working in "Transaero" will not be on the street: «It is very good and professional personnel therefore they will squeeze out someone from other airlines rather, than remain without work». A half of them already promised to employ "Aeroflot", including in the new company which plans to create on the basis of JSC Russia, "Donavia" and "Orenburg Airlines".

Tickets will go to growth

Experts expect inevitable growth of cost of air tickets. «It is possible to forget about cheap tickets, at least, within network normal business», – the Fisherman is categorical. The vice-president of Association of tour operators of Russia (ATOR) Dmitry Gorin is also sure that tickets will rise in price. «The matter is that their average cost the last two years did not raise, despite double growth of currency. In this situation it is possible or to continue a way of new bankruptcies of airlines, or to rise in the price», – it explains.

About that it is necessary to wait for increase of cost of flights in the directions where "Transaero" competed to a small number of carriers, the general director of the Biletix service Alexander Sizintsev speaks also. «On the other hand, leaving from the market of the players who are in financial difficulties, increases stability of the market that is one of tools and an indicator of its improvement», – he adds.

According to the representative of service on booking of air tickets of Aviasales, in a case with "Transaero" the prospect of a rise in prices for tickets is connected first of all with Paris, Prague and other cities where «the alliance Sky Team monopoly» will return. «It is clear that the exclusive directions like Bali, Mauritius and Mexico simply remain without through service to Moscow, – the interlocutor noted. – Leaving of the Russian loukoster rose in due time in the price in some directions to 50 percent».

Holiday is cancelled?

The Russian tourists felt situation deterioration even before the termination of flights of "Transaero" which should come to the end on December 15 (to this term is planned to transport 95 percent of the passengers who have already bought tickets). On Saturday, October 3, the general director of travel agency "Biblio-Globus" Alexander Tugolukov declared TASS that in case of a suspension of flights of "Transaero" about 200 thousand clients cannot go on rest. He also reported that about 4,5 billion rubles the operator listed "Transaero" as payment of tickets. «It is necessary to understand that these money are involved by us from outside tourists», – he emphasized.

The source in other large travel agency confirmed "Lente.Ra" that in case of the termination of flights of "Transaero" since October 5 as it was initially planned, problems would arise at tens of thousands of tourists. «On Monday could not take off according to already bought permits of 57 thousand people», – he emphasized. Also added: if something goes not according to the plan, it will provoke chain reaction of problems at tour operators. According to the interlocutor if all clients of "Transaero" decided to hand over tickets on Friday, the carrier should return not less than 10 billion rubles.

Photo: Evgeny of Biyatov / RIA Novosti news agency

«From 650 thousand tickets of "Transaero" for October-January about 205 thousand tourist are issued. Naturally, it is possible to order new flights, to rebook, return money to clients. But there are many questions how all this will be organized and in what terms?» – the vice-president of ATOR Gorin in turn added. By its estimates, about 40 percent of tourist transportations were the share of "Transaero". «However, many travel agencies have own charter carriers – Metrojet, Nordwind and many other. And it without considering the airlines which are carrying out regular flights. Therefore serious problems should not arise», – he specified.

It is obvious that the key role in overcoming of the developed crisis should be played to "Aeroflot". From clearness and coordination of work of team of a carrier number one, how quickly it will adjust interaction with other airlines and authorities, the destiny of present passengers of "Transaero" will depend also. On Sunday "Aeroflot" reported that "Biblio Globusa’s" clients with "Transaero" tickets with departure date till October 9 will transport according to the schedule, and information on transportations the next days «will appear later». Besides, "Aeroflot" asked Ministry of Transport to hold meeting with participation of representatives of "Transaero", "Biblio-Globusa", ATOR and Rosturizm.

Tatyana Romanov, Alexander Volobuyev