Rescue drowning

Than "Aeroflot" and "Transaero" transaction will turn back

"Lenta.Ra" asked experts of the aviation market to comment on the transaction on purchase by "Aeroflot" the second for volume of transportations of the player – "Transaero".

«Sharp social shocks will not be»

Oleg Panteleev, editor-in-chief of branch agency "Aviaport":

«The share of "Aeroflot" and so grows from year to year, and after the transaction on "Transaero" purchase the company can quite appear dominating on a number of lines. FAS, possibly, will demand to allow on lines of new players. So the transaction will approve, but with certain conditions.

"Aeroflot" too following the results of the II quarter has losses, and too are long. But a duty ratio to EBITDA at "Aeroflot" such that banks are ready to give to it the new credits, and to "Transaero" treat as the unreliable borrower.

For the passenger the rise in prices is inevitable. And it would occur regardless of merge: the branch cannot incur infinitely long losses (since 2011 it is system airlines in a minus). By the Transport Clearing House estimates, each passenger costs branches more than 400 rubles of losses, and at least for this sum it is necessary to raise tariffs.

But there are still such factors, as decrease in the VAT as reduction of provozny capacities (in the short term it is inevitable), – all this will work on branch positively. And absorption of "Transaero" will lead to that the dumping from its party will stop.

Edinomomentna stops of "Transaero" will not occur, so sharp social shocks will not be. But reduction of fleet inevitably. Therefore, someone remains "behind a board". It will be possible to give exact estimates after the management of Group of "Aeroflot" will work steps on integration of "Transaero" into the business».

«"Transaero" was brought strongly by sharply fallen stream of exit tourism»

Alexey Dorosh, director «Coherent Travel»:

«That occurred to "Transaero", began in the market online тревел agencies (OTA) in 2013. Then failed Eviterra dumped, then began to use current assets not for the designated purpose, then ceased to pay to suppliers. During 2014 similar cases occurred to a number of players from OTA and travel agencies.

"Transaero" was brought strongly by sharply fallen stream of exit tourism, and internal flights, in principle, could not compensate in loss money from sales on the foreign directions. But also the dumping in Russia – discounts for internal flights to 30 percent from market level – as a result resulted actually in bankruptcy.

And if the case with Eviterra poured out in the cancelled flights and travel of hundreds passengers, in a case with "Transaero" tens of thousands of people and one hundred suppliers would suffer. Therefore "Aeroflot" to which will need to execute now "Transaero" obligations on all transportations, repayment of debts to contractors (and it not only the airports, but also other suppliers) and the employees "to the aid" came.

That it means for passengers – all their flights will take place, and it is big plus. The unique possible minus – the miles which have been saved up within loyalty program most likely "will burn down".

For the market it means that "Aeroflot" becomes in fact the unique regulator of air transportation – opponents neither on the size of fleet, nor on coverage of territories at it is not present».

«I do not think that "Aeroflot" is glad to such acquisition»

Anatoly Hodorovsky, deputy director general of Region investment company:

«Such outcome of events was predictable long ago. The financial statements of the company testified one and a half years ago to its frailty. An exit could be only two: bankruptcy or sanitation. Purchase for 1 ruble is and there is, in fact, a sanitation of the carrier having an enormous hole in balance. By my estimates, it makes not less than 70 billion rubles.

It is impossible to forget and that "Transaero" was engaged in blackmail of banks and the governments. In the letter addressed to the deputy minister of transport Valery Okulov the first zamgendirektor of "Transaero" Dmitry Stolyarov specified that the banks, not wishing to re-structure unsettled debts, pose «serious threat of activity of airline». That is it not the company debtor poses threat to banks which are compelled to reserve means because of the arisen delay, and her creditors!

Thus the company constantly indicated 3 million in good time sold tickets and for the increased social responsibility. However the cash flow in the due size thus was not generated: tickets were on sale on economically unreasonable tariffs: these prices did not correspond to costs of transportations from what there were losses. Independent analysts counted up that recently each transported passenger yielded avikompaniya a loss in 2 thousand rubles. But other exit at a carrier was not: it was necessary to advance any way sales to receive money for a covering of debts.

I do not think that "Aeroflot" is glad to such acquisition. It is obvious that at direct consolidation it will have a negative capital and it is necessary to the state докапитализировать group. However, I do not think that appearance of the player of such scale will badly affect the market. How many airlines in France? One – Air France. In Germany two – Lufthansa and Air Berlin which among themselves do not compete. It without considering small carriers. The same situation and in many other countries, and considers nobody it catastrophic. So it is not necessary to argue that decrease in the competition will perniciously affect the market and steadily will lead to growth of tariffs».

«To speak about monopoly it is not necessary»

Roman Zakharov, editor-in-chief of the magazine «Flight line»:

«I am surprised to such succession of events. The company several times passed crises without loss, in "heavy" 1998, for example, completely changed business model.

Certainly, a situation in the market now the adverse. The volume of charter transportations sharply fell, the volume of transportations in the foreign directions in regions was reduced by 80-90 percent. Players staked on internal transportations, but because of a difficult economic situation growth of this segment also began to be limited.

Certainly, to speak about monopoly it is not necessary, as in the market there is other strong private player – S7, and at it the situation is much more favorable, than at "Transaero": the carrier optimized a route network, works over repayment of debts which are not so great.

Meanwhile this transaction as it seems to me, will lead to a rise in prices for air tickets. As soon as in the market "bury" airline, it leads to growth of tariffs.

If to speak about possible succession of events, bankruptcy would not become accident for the market. So, in 1991 in America one of the largest airlines – Pan American went bankrupt, and the branch quietly postponed this event. The history and successful associations of large national players knows. In the same America in 2013 American Airlines which was on the verge of bankruptcy and US Airways that allowed to rescue the unprofitable company merged and as a whole favorably affected the market».

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