Lukashenko went against the current, but Russia will strengthen pressure
Lukashenko publicly disavowed arrangements on creation of the Russian air base in Belarus, than cast the Kremlin management into a stupor. Creation of the Russian air base if is not cancelled finally, removed for the postelective period.
Russia opened the Syrian front on which the attention of the whole world concentrated. But when the situation will calm down, under thin ice there will be very deep water. The conflict in Donbass goes to freezing, and former trust between the USA and Russia, NATO and Russia it is not necessary to expect. And Russia will strengthen pressure upon the belarusky authorities on purpose to create air base.
Such opinion in interview of "Belaruskay pra?dze" was stated by the military man обозревательАлександр to Alesin.
– Lukashenko disavowed arrangements with the Kremlin about placement of the Russian air base in Belarus. It is game on electorate or attempt to reverse to process?
– Taking into account that to elections remained very little, I think, it is game on electorate. Now Lukashenko is guided by needs of a present situation because all his opponents grasped a trump in the form of air base. Not to answer attacks of opponents of Lukashenko could not: the statement sounded at the right time in due time. Certainly, Lukashenko tries to incline on the party of the fluctuating.
– «Planes, instead of bases are necessary today to us. We have fine pilots, at us good school of pilots of military, civil. And why to me to create base?», – asked Lukashenko’s rhetorical question. Validly, the Russian air base is necessary to official Minsk or is not necessary?
– For defense of air space of Belarus the Russian air base is not necessary, because on density of anti-aircraft weapons on square kilometer of the sky Belarus is, seemingly, most protected country in the world. In Belarus four brigades S-300 plus of brigade S-300B, "Beeches" are and systems of smaller range of flight – any plane even the group of planes with impunity will not get to belarusky air space. If to be guided by interests of defense, Belarus additional resources of air defense are not necessary.
But the aircraft for support of ground forces, for support in the field of fight is necessary to us. It is one of the most sick problems the Belarusian of defense. We wrote off the front Su24 bombers which are rather successfully applied in Syria, we refused from СУ27. Such suspicion that in due time Russia took a hand, that we got rid of these planes and became more dependent on Russia in respect of air cover. Lukashenko also stated the hidden reproach to Russia: the base is not necessary to us – planes do not suffice. It is necessary to fill the formed gap with something.
– Then than to explain information throw from the Russian Federation about emergence of air base at the beginning of 2016?
– It is attempt to press on Lukashenko. Russia quite often uses information special troops for pressure upon the management of Belarus. Attack is authorized by the top management of Russia about what tells the draft agreement printed on a site of the government of the Russian Federation. Obviously, the agreement was highly readiness. Possibly, Russia considered that Lukashenko cannot refuse even the unprofitable offer for it because support of Russia depended on it on presidential election. But in conditions when Russia завязла in Syria, without having ended war in Ukraine, in the international isolation when the Russian Federation needs Belarus as in one of key partners in ODKB, I think, Lukashenko decided to go for broke and went against the current. Lukashenko’s long silence on information throws, on campaign in the press says that it carefully weighed a situation, and the final decision came after intervention of Russia to the Syrian campaign. Russia wages war on several fronts, and not in its interests to fuel tension and with the ally.
Besides, gradually the sharpness of the Ukrainian question in our region comes to naught; the last decisions and «the Norman four», and arrangements on branch of arms of calibre less than 100 mm from the differentiation line, absence of attacks, opening of the Syrian front Russia threw a sharpness of problems to that region. Therefore creation of the Russian air base if is not cancelled, removed for the postelective period. In general the president very flexible politician who can correct the decisions very strongly – if it is favorable to it.
– In general, as we know, Lukashenko’s words and Lukashenko’s action – absolutely different things which have been usually calculated on different consumers. The Kremlin declared that the air base will start to function with January, 2016, Lukashenko swears that does not know about air base. Whose will take?
– To deny plans on creation of base it is impossible: in 2013 Shoygu in the presence of Lukashenko declared that the base in Belarus will be. All subsequent time questions of principle were coordinated: placement place, number of planes, types of planes. To deny obvious it is impossible. But the international situation once again allowed Lukashenko to be turned out, it is simple not in interests of Russia now to fuel tension also with Belarus. It seems to me, campaign in the press testify that negotiations Russia does not achieve the object.
But when the situation will calm down, under thin ice there will be very deep water. The conflict in Donbass goes to freezing, and former trust between the USA and Russia, NATO and Russia it is not necessary to expect. And Russia will strengthen pressure upon the belarusky authorities.
It seems to me, in Lukashenko speaks also offense: probably, to elections it did not get the promised economic support for which he hoped. Set of all factors also led Lukashenko to the present decision. And the main thing, he wants to win elections therefore beats out from hands of opponents the unique trump. And will build on a situation further strategy of the relations with Russia in a new way.
Time Russia publicly proclaimed the base concept, probably, the parties will compound, probably, the parties will create the mixed air unit about what Lukashenko, by the way, already spoke. Joint watch of the Russian links with belarusky pilots in Baranovichi can become a prototype of a compromise. It is impossible to exclude emergence of the mixed air unit of the Union State.
– The Russian Federation and Belarus has a concrete plan even on a war case, Lukashenko admitted. About what plan there is a speech?
– Plan known. Belarus should hold mobile defense until the Russian Federation will not send help to Belarus. Conceding any part of the territory, our mobile forces will constrain the coming opponent, by means of transport aircraft to Belarus the part of airborne troops of Russia, aircraft at first will be thrown, and then there will arrive land forces. Mobilization of belarusky armies, on a plan will be carried out at the same time, territorial defense will participate in fights also.
Approximately such plan which is fulfilled on joint belarusko-Russian military doctrines. The problem of belarusky armies in case of NATO aggression – to hold on to an approach of allies.