Salon in itself. Impressions from MAX-2015

In situated near Moscow Zhukovsky the twelfth MAX International aerospace salon came to the end. The largest Russian aviation forum traditionally collected a great number of participants and visitors, despite of a political and economic crisis, however its model needs if not revision, in serious adjustment.

MAX restless

Many noticed that the air show passed rather modestly. Matter not only in lack of large premieres or loud anchor transactions, like orders of the Ministry of Defence for fighters AHK "Sukhoi" in 2009 or a conveyor kontraktovaniye "Superdzhetov" and MS-21 in 2011. Some avarice of expositions which was not passing even recognized branch titans first of all was evident.

And business here not in sanctions. Just the western business behaved at an exhibition absolutely quietly, sometimes (as Frenchmen, for example) – frankly defiantly. As though there were no sanctions, any «new cold war». All this remained somewhere in TVs, and at a forum purely business matters were solved. Eventually, when Pratt & Whitney occupies a half of the stand with the huge image of the Russian MS-21 airliner, it does not demand additional explanations.

But some scarcity of salon there is one purely internal explanation, besides not the best state of the economy of the country.

The desire of the management of the Ministry of Defence to collect all actions and military museum expositions in one place (in Patriot park) should affect exhibition plans of the industry.

Experts noted that "Army-2015", besides performance of propaganda and entertaining functions, can really become a good working forum of producers and military. Closed, naturally. Such platforms are necessary, it is necessary to understand only how them to balance with open actions. While it turns out not so.

As a whole MAX-2015 only confirmed the tendency which has arisen on salon of 2009 and fully shown in 2011 and 2013. Sharp growth of defensive expenses of the state in the first years of actions «Gosprogramma arms-2020» reversed system of priorities of the industry. Received large volume of state defense order of the enterprise and holdings concentrated on development of these means and production modernization.

When they will sleep off after a nourishing dinner and again will join in marketing, difficultly to tell. The dinner does not decline only yet, on the contrary – Gosprogramma’s largest expenditure start since 2015: mass serial release of samples of the equipment developed or finished from being available prototypes in the first five years, will be combined with generous financing of research and development on perspective samples of the following generation.

In what degree in these conditions the industry is interested in public marketing, including in large industry shows – a question open. Attempts втолкаться in a close car of military researches and development (not stopping from the 1990th, but financed adresno, it is the extremely avaricious and is often forcible) were earlier strong motivator or to strengthen links with potential inozakazchik.

Now, against the budgetary plans imposed till 2020 and deterioration of the relations with the West, at producers everything is stronger temptation to become isolated in internal small parties without witnesses. That occurs to similar system if from it suddenly to clean a stream of the budgetary feed, we clearly saw in the 1990th years.

Export bumpiness

«The Russian export of the weapon expects stagnation», – such statement was made recently by one of the most authoritative Russian military experts, the director of the center of the analysis of strategy and technologies (TsAST) Ruslan Pukhov. On the one hand, it looks strange – while the Russian weapon export steadily takes the second place in the world, and the total amount of sales in a year exceeded volume in 15 billion dollars.

On the other hand, the bases for such point of view are. The markets traditional for Russia or are close to overstocking as in Algeria, or on them there was rigidly competitive environment, preventing to increase volumes of deliveries as in Vietnam and India. Or, at last, buyers in these markets have no sufficient available funds – as Venezuela, Syria and some other the countries.

Hopes of growth of export are always – to remember very unexpected return of Russia to an arms market of Iraq and Egypt, occurred for the last two with small years enough. Nevertheless the number of the countries with high needs for the weapon and a decent condition of finance is limited, and many of them consume for a long time the western production. Among expected breaks – an exit to the market of Iran which, obviously, some months will take place in the next. However even in case of receiving all potential Iranian orders by Russia, as a whole it will not solve a problem.

One of the reasons of it is sharp increase in a cycle of operation of the military equipment, 30 years exceeding now, as a rule. That is put by Russia to foreign customers in the 2000th years warplanes will not demand replacement earlier, than in 15-20 years. Certainly, it is fair and for the western equipment. The fighting platforms created on the basis of an available complex of scientific knowledge and engineering development, gradually reach limits of the development that leads to rise in price and increase in duration of process of their further improvement. Each next stage of improvement of TTH is paid by more and more high price and demands the increasing time, and there will be no yet a new fundamental break, comparable on the importance to the invention of the plane or with transition of aircraft to jet draft, here will change nothing.

The possible solution is covered not only in the fastest development of a mass production of new types of the military equipment now passable tests, but also in more hard work in the market of modernization and repair of different types of the weapon. One cannot say that Russia did not undertake here any efforts, however at present the volume of such works considerably concedes to sales volume of the new weapon.

The volume of military orders of ended salon while is rather modest: according to the official statement of "Rosoboronexport", with Belarus the contract for delivery of five fighting vehicles from structure of the surface-to-air missile Tor-M2K missile system, is concluded with Jordan – on delivery of the parachute P-7 platforms, with the Spanish company HISDESAT Servicios Estrat gicos S.A. – on start of the space PAZ satellite. However, negotiations with potential customers proceed.

«If to compare to the previous air shows in Zhukovsky, I can note that intensity of negotiations remains at high level. Many meetings passed with partners from the countries of Africa, Latin America and South East Asia. Today "Rosoboronexport" realizes complex marketing strategy on expansion of military and technical cooperation with the states of these regions, and we see steady interest to the Russian weapon, including to aviation equipment and anti-aircraft weapons» – the head of the Russian delegation at an exhibition, the first deputy director general of "Rosoboronexport" Ivan Goncharenko noted.

Correction of marketing strategy is capable to keep Russia growth of volumes of military export in the next years, to a mass exit to the market of the latest development of domestic OPK. For those who looks on MAX eyes of the viewer or the journalist, it means chance of sharp increase of knowledge: that something to sell in the close and competitive market, about the goods it is necessary much and it is interesting to tell.

Konstantin Bogdanov, Ilya Kramnik