Prelude to the bargaining

Whether the Russian air base is necessary to Belarus

Alexander Lukashenko on October 11 again staticized a question of placement in Belarus of the Russian air base. During the improvised briefing for the press on the polling station number 1 in Minsk he acted with a number of inconsistent statements from which followed that the Belarusian leader did not discuss this subject with the Russian colleague Vladimir Putin. Lukashenko suggested representatives of the European mass media not to be frightened and complained that journalists gave to this question too much attention. Already next day the press secretary of the Russian president softly noted that heads of states «discussed various aspects». Thus he noticed that negotiations on this subject are coming the parties. To "Lenta.Ra" reflected, whether the Russian air base could be necessary for Minsk.

Strange reaction

Inconsistent statements for placement of the Russian air base constantly get to information space in Belarus. Special activity in this question is shown recently by the president of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko. It periodically disowns from the fact of negotiations with the Russian side and insistently emphasizes total absence of need to place planes of Aerospace forces in the territory of its country.

Thus Minsk lets know that is ready to discuss this question with Moscow, – as it happened during a briefing after vote when Lukashenko as the curtain fell noted that will discuss «with Vladimir Putin this problem – if Russia sees something that we do not see, she will tell».

However, the epic connected with creation of the Russian air base, is accompanied by scandals from the very beginning – that is since April, 2013. In a public field intensive discussion began after the Minister of Defence of Russia Sergey Shoygu declared in the presence of Lukashenko that by 2015 in Belarus the Russian air base will be created.

Some days later the Belarusian leader in every possible way denied such possibility, speaking about need of deliveries of fighters for the Air Force of his country. Despite loud statements of the Father, at the end of the same 2013 on the 61st destructive air base in Baranovichi (The Brest area) there arrived a link from four Russian fighters Su-27. They intended for conducting joint watch with the Air Force of Belarus.

Photo Su-27 planes: Ramil of Sitdikov / RIA Novosti news agency

After that statements of the management of both countries, from the Russian side – about creation of high-grade air base, and with Belarusian – inconsistent repeatedly sounded: that about desire to increase the Russian presence, only about need of deliveries of planes for the Air Force of Belarus.

The last aggravation of a situation occurred after the order of the president of Russia Vladimir Putin from September 19, 2015 – to sign the agreement on creation of the Russian air base in Belarus. Strange reaction of Minsk followed: On October 6 Alexander Lukashenko declared that anybody never discussed with it a question of creation of the Russian air base, and it is not necessary to it, and planes for the Air Force of Belarus are necessary. As a result behind a framework of discussion and there was a main issue: why the Russian air base in Belarus and whether is necessary it in general.

Protection of the Kaliningrad region

Air base creation in Belarus Russia pursues some purposes. The main – defense capacity strengthening on the western borders, with a sight on defense of the Kaliningrad region surrounded with the unfriendly states of the block of NATO: Poland and Lithuania. The urgency of this problem considerably increased after strain of relations between the West and Russia.

Placement of a quantity of forces of NATO in the Baltic countries (including fighters and shock bespilotnik) both active rearmament and adjustment of military contacts between the Scandinavian states demand the Russian answer. One of possible ways also is creation in Belarus of the Russian air base armed with the modern fighters Su-27CM3.

This plane is the modernization of standard Soviet Su-27 approaching it to most modern to Russian to serial by cars of this class – Su-35 or Su-30CM. Besides, unlike the base Su-27CM3 version has possibility to apply the wide nomenclature of the high-precision air surface weapon.

Photo Su-27CM3 plane: Aleksandrov Sergey / "Kommersant"

Besides fighters it was planned to place also in Belarus the plane of distant radar-tracking detection and management (DRLO) A-50. This car provides detection of fighters of the opponent at distance to 300 kilometers, on the upgraded A-50U version the maximum range of detection is even higher, however it while is coded. DRLO plane existence – very important factor allowing with high efficiency to find strengths of the opponent (including land and surface) and to direct at them friendly means of defeat.

There is a logical question: what prevents to manage aircraft of VKS Russian Federation placed in the Russian airfields in the Pskov, Smolensk and Leningrad areas? Naturally, the aircraft of the Western military district (ZVO) will be actively involved in the hypothetical conflict. Moreover – to the Kaliningrad region from "own" air bases really to fly almost as much, how many from the Belarusian Bobruisk or Baranovichi.

But if to consider the scenario of the regional conflict, it becomes clear that fight against the Air Force of Poland becomes a main objective of air base in Belarus. Considering the latest foreign policy events, active militarization and military integration of the Scandinavian countries (in spite of the fact that NATO includes only Norway), at emergence of the big conflict the main forces of ZVO will be connected by fights with forces of Finland, Norway, Denmark and Sweden – and these are about 250 fighters of different types: American F-18 and F-16, the Swedish JAS-39 Gripen, 52 more ordered Air Force of Norway of fighters of the fifth generation F-35 of production of the USA will join them soon.

Photo: Czarek Sokolowski/AP

On this background to distract big forces of VKS Russian Federation on fight against the Polish Air Force which is armed 48 fighters F-16 and 32 Soviet MiG-29, it will be difficult. And the distance to Poland from Belarus is much less: from the closest airfields in the territory of the Russian Federation to the same Warsaw – at least 750 kilometers whereas from the same Baranovichi – only 350 kilometers, respectively, podletny time of the Russian planes will be reduced twice. Considering possibilities of the upgraded heavy fighters Su-27CM3 and existence of eight divisions of S-300PS surface-to-air missile systems as a part of armed forces of Belarus entering into the ODKB air defense incorporated system (four were put in 2005-2006, four more should arrive on arms of VS of Belarus till the end of this year), such forces will be enough for conducting fights with the Polish Air Force, and also for drawing of blows on land strengths of the opponent, including in his territory.

«Contacts are coming»

Thus that is important, existence of base of Aerospace forces of Russia does not restrain interests of Belarus at all. In any case – not how it tries to show Lukashenko. Moreover, initially the initiative of placement of the Russian aircraft in Belarus in many respects proceeded from the Minsk which had problems with protection of the western borders against threats from air. Problems arose owing to natural aging of the aircraft which has remained in inheritance from the USSR, – the fighters Su-27 and MiG-29. If easy and cheaper MiG-29 Belarus pulled repair and modernization, with Su-27 everything is slightly more difficult.

Alexander Lukashenko and Sergey Shoygu, 2013 of the Photo: Alexey of Druzhinin / RIA Novosti news agency

In 2013 it was decided to write off all 22 available cars in connection with exhaustion of their resource, however in a year Lukashenko suggested to repair and modernize a part of planes. Probably, 10-15 cars also it will be possible to return to life, but hardly for a long time as the resource of a glider of planes all the same expires. As a result at first the Belarusian party invited forces of VKS Russian Federation to joint protection of air space of the country, but the desire it gradually flowed in traditional «give us planes» as the republic has no funds for purchase of expensive heavy fighters.

Russia promised to transfer four ZRK S-300PS divisions already by the end of this year. Probably, at the price of such generous gift air base placement in the territory of Belarus – at least also is, transfer of expensive fighters on a gratuitous basis (as that is wanted by Lukashenko) will be hardly interesting to Moscow.

All this means that loud statements of the Father concerning air base placement – only the next prelude to the bargaining. As the press secretary of the Russian president Dmitry Peskov during a briefing already designated on October 12 time and a place of hypothetical negotiations on this subject: «Constructive discussion will be continued. Contacts of presidents are coming: they will meet at the summit of the CIS in Kazakhstan this week. And at them possibility will discuss all these questions».

Leonid Nersisyan