Polite bombers

The Syrian conflict as "krymozamenitel" in domestic policy

Aviation operation of Russia in Syria is at the same time a PR action in Russia. The power wants, that the same effect, as from accession of the Crimea was reached. However hostilities in Syria can turn back for the Russian power serious problems.

And if this action operation had a code name, it it would be necessary to call «The Crimea on departure». Because required result same, as well as from accession to Russia peninsulas: semi-military mobilization of the Russian population and consolidation it round Vladimir Putin with maintenance of a rating of the head at level is not lower than 80 percent. Besides style of decision-making across Syria provokes effect of a deja vu – so unanimous approval by the Federation Council of the sudden decision of the first person, as well as in a case with accession of the Crimea.

In the opinion of the Russian audience which was already reserved by dark glasses and field-glasses, as at an air show, the Russian president and) "made" Barack Obama; б) confirmed that the status of the great power is really restored, – Russia plays by the rules where will want, and how will want, for thousands kilometers from own borders and from shout «And well disperse!»; в) the following presidential term deserved thereby.

Average and long-term consequences like increase in military expenses, so, aggravation of crisis, damage of customs – war is finally justified and became morally accepted, strengthenings of risks of acts of terrorism and problems with a part of the Muslim population within the country interest nobody. Russia lives for today. Show should proceed. Pressure in pipes of public opinion – to remain the same. Almost at any cost.

Poll of the Levada-center which has been carried out on September 18-21, that is before Putin’s performance in the United Nations, a meeting with Obama and especially prior to the beginning of aviaoperation, showed that the Russian citizens more approved the political and diplomatic help of Syria – totally 67 percent supported such form of support of Bashar Assad. And if military and technical support was considered by reasonable 43 percent of respondents, the direct military help was approved only by 14 percent.

Even character of events in Syria was estimated by the Russian respondents more as civil war – 46 percent of respondents so thought. And 32 percent supported the version according to which «the terrorists incited by the West, conduct bloody fight against the lawful government of the country». Assad as the bloody tyrant was considered only by eight percent.

It is clear that aviaoperation moreover against so superficial relation of Russians to Assad’s figure and his mode will mobilize the population and number approving military intervention, especially if it will not be valid land operation, will sharply increase. But all the same Syrian war for Russians does not become same "native", as the Crimean or Donbass episodes.

Yes, this war in the opinion of the post-Crimean majority fair and, it represents self-defense from terrorists, let and preventive. Yes, while it sees same easy, polite pilots, as well as operation in the Crimea. But this war and a little another’s. And it would not be desirable the second Afghanistan at all.

At all PR appeal to internal audience of the Syrian steps of the Russian power it is very dangerous game. The Soviet Union was included into Afghanistan too gradually, actually, as well as the USA to Vietnam, since the help with the weapon and advisers and finishing the hardest long-term operations in the jungle, the desert, mountains (necessary to emphasize). And when the "narrow" Politburo made the decision on invasion into Afghanistan, it too became at the desire of, so to speak, host. The history or is forgotten, or the Soviet cliches are reproduced by itself in a framework of «effect of a track», or analogies to Soviet period are caused from the past specially.

And if the Syrian war makes a sacrifice? We will again be covered with a board of the law on privacy of losses in a peace time?

In the Syrian PR project one more problem is sewn up: this boss can be shot ahead of time, after all to elections still far. The power got used to support very high degree of a patriotic wave and excessively lifted up indicators of ratings of trust and approval. As soon as action of the Crimea and Donbass on souls and brains of Russians started to exhaust, there was Syria as such "krymozamenitel".

Syria, of course, very successful manipulative tablet in the sense that in its pharmacological action is sewn up even nostalgia across the USSR, on «our bitch’s sons», for those times, when the country resolved processes in the Arab world in borders of the zone of influence and an area of «friendship of the people».

But action and this medicine called including to distract attention from an economic crisis in logic «war instead of a salary, pensions and workplaces», sooner or later if it will not be settled, will weaken. And then instead of Syria it is necessary to think out something new, so symbolical, mobilizuyushchy and consolidating.

As the economic miracle will not be, the probability of the beginning of any small victorious high-altitude war for "our" shelf in the Arctic Ocean, for "our" ridge of Lomonosov in the Arctic is great. Or in the Kremlin will break the heads over something imitating, like fight against «the Albanian terrorists» in Levinson’s known film Barry "Trickery".

It is terrible even to think, whom the Russian aircraft will bomb, when the Syrian effect will come to naught and presidential election will come nearer. Syria very much would be useful in 2018. But it used in the 2015th, and now it is necessary to look for other point on the map. Or other globe.

Andrey Kolesnikov